A STUDY OF PREDICTING HUMAN PHYSICAL GROWTH AND JUVENILE DISEASES WITH AGING

我们连续收集了广岛生长研究样本的纵向数据，这些数据是与阿萨医学会合作获得的物理生长测量值和血清化学测量值。通过对2364名儿童的纵向记录进行数据筛选，对793名男孩和483名女孩提出了两个新的出生至成年身高增长模型，代表了中期生长突增。这些模型是在相对成熟度的基础上，从基本增长模型出发提出的。这些生长模型比JPA 2和Count-Gompertz生长模型更适合于目前的个体生长记录。然而，我们必须研究中期生长突增的基础研究，成年身高与初潮年龄无关是一个既定的理论。在控制初潮身高的情况下，成年身高与初潮年龄的偏相关系数为负且偏大。对于任何两种生物现象，如高峰身高增长速度、最小身高增长速度、中期生长突增和初潮，也存在类似的关系。这些结果对预测未来的生长和肥胖非常有用，我们还可以预测随着年龄增长的青少年疾病。我们发现碱性磷酸酶（或胆固醇）的长期变化与生长速度曲线有一定的关系，但没有得到具体的结果。为了收集纵向生长和医疗记录，我们开发了一个计算机软件，为缺乏经验的医生和护士构建队列研究数据库。

We have continuously collected the longitudinal data for Hiroshima Growth Study samples which are the measurements of physical growth and chemical measurements of blood serum obtained in cooperation with the Asa Medical Association. After some data screening, longitudinal records of 2364 children have been made machine-readable.For 793 boys and 483 girls, we proposed two new growth models of height from birth to adulthood representing mid-growth spurt. These models are proposed from the fundamental growth model on the basis of degree of relative maturity. These growth models are better fitted than JPA2 and Count-Gompertz growth models being fitted well to individual growth records at present. However, we have to study basic research for mid-growth spurt.It is an established theory that adult height is independent of menarcheal age. When we control menarcheal height, the partial correlation coefficient between adult height and menarcheal age is negative and large. The similar relationships hold for any two biological phenomenon such as peak height Velocity, minimum height velocity, mid-growth spurt and menarche. These results are very useful for predicting the future growth and obesity, and we can also predict juvenile diseases with aging. We found a relationship between secular change of alkaline-phosphatase (or cholesterol) and growth velocity curve, but we -can't obtain any concrete results. For collecting longitudinal growth and medical records, we have developed a computer software to construct data bases on cohort studies for inexperienced medical doctors and nurses.