Study into the Fluctuations of Foreign Exchanges under the Managed Currency System, especially, the Flexible Exchange Rate System

本研究的目的是，首先分析20世纪30年代建立的管理货币制度下汇率长期波动的因素，以及70年代建立的弹性汇率制度下汇率中期波动的因素，其次解释20世纪80年代以《广场协定》为界限的日美汇率波动的原因。分析分为三个部分，即20世纪60年代、70年代和80年代。到目前为止，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃被解释为国际货币美元危机，但它只是一个机会，而不是根本原因。这项研究表明，美元危机现象背后的经济实体是购买力平价的运动，其对固定汇率和IMF平价的通货膨胀性偏离毕竟摧毁了布雷顿森林体系本身。自1973年弹性汇率制度问世以来，有许多追随者期待其自动的国际收支平衡机制。给出了客观条件，并从理论上证明了其误差点。此外，我们还展示了货币当局干预外汇市场的原因和干预的害处。20世纪80年代上半叶第一任里根政府的高美元汇率和80年代后半期第二届里根政府的低美元汇率给美国带来了许多不良影响和重大教训。阐明了美国对日经济战略从里根和布什的共和党执政时期减少第二产业(以汽车为代表)到克林顿先生以增加第一产业(以农产品为代表)为代表的对日经济战略转变的过程和原因。

Purposes of this study are, first, to analyse the factors of long-term fluctuations of foreign exchange rates under the managed currency system established in the 1930s and of middle-term fluctuations of those under the flexible exchange rate system established in the 1970s, second, to explain the causes of the fluctuations of exchanges between Japan and America in the 1980s bounded by the PLAZA ACCORD. Analyzes are separated into three parts, namely 1960s, 70s and 80s.On the first era. Up to this time, collapse of the Bretton Woods System has been explained as the crisis of dollar, the international currency, but it is merely an opportunity, not the fundamental cause. This study made it clear that the economic entity behind the phenomenon of the dollar crisis was the movement of the Purchasing Power Parity, and that its inflative deviation from both the fixed exchange rate and IMF parity destroyed the Bretton Woods System itself after all.On the second era. Since the advent of the flexible exchange rate system in 1973, there are many adherents who expect its automatic mechanism of balance of payments. We showed the objective conditions, and proved its error points thoretically. Further, we showed the factor why the monetary authority intervened in the foreign exchange market and the evils of intervention.On the third era. America was given both many ill effects and significant lessons by the high rates of dollar under the first Reagan administration in the first half of 1980s, and the low rates of dollar under the second Reagan administration in the latter half of 1980s. We clarified the process and reasons of the transformation of the economic strategy with Japan, from that of decreasing the products of secondary industry (represented by cars) under the Republican administration by Mr. Reagan and Mr. Bush into that of incresing the products of primary industry (represented by agricultural produce) under the Democratic administration by Mr. Clinton.