The study of the analysis of the increase factor and demand estimation in old-people mobility

本研究的目的是利用人口出行调查对老年人的流动性进行归因分析，在进行原始调查的基础上建立总体模型，并对老年人贵族进行归因分析。然后，通过对出行调查数据的分析，所获得的知识如下：1.老年人就业率和出行率的增加可能会增加老年人出行。2.2025年老年人的汽车出行没有减少，而是人口减少。3.如果从交通工具的出行估计来看，4.如果老年人的就业率发生变化并加以估计，铁路出行的减少可以得到抑制。其次，它处于原始问卷1。结论：1.老年人的外出活动随着年龄的增长呈下降趋势。有工作活动的人是指工作的存在与外出活动的关系高于失业者。认为身体上的困难是一个原因，与出局摔倒是有联系的。作为公共交通工具的替代交通工具的社区公交车，如出租车、公共汽车和铁路。据认为，维修要求强烈的东西有很大的社区公交车和潜在的福利转移服务需求。

The purpose of this study is the attribution analysis of the old-people mobility using the person trip survey, creation of a total model and the attribution analysis of old-people nobility after conducting original investigation.Then, the acquired knowledge is shown below :First, it is by analysis of person trip survey data.1.An increase of old people's rate of employment and rate of going out may increase old-people trip.2.Old people's automobile trip does not decrease in 2025 as compared with population reduction.3.If estimation of trip by means of transportation is seen, trip of railroad use will decrease most.4.If old people's rate of employment is changed and is estimated, reduction of railroad trip can be suppressed.Next, it is at an original questionnaire.1. Going-out activity had fallen old people's going-out activity with older and older by the age group.2. The person's with a job activity is which the relation between the existence of working, and going-out activity higher than an unemployed person.3. It is thought that physical difficulty is a reason and is connected with the going-out fall as difficult.4. A community bus as the alternative means of transportation of public means of transportation, such as a taxi, a bus, and a railroad.5. It is thought that the thing with a strong maintenance request has much a community bus and potential demand as for welfare transfer service.