'Comprehensive' Research on the desaster tolerance in Japanese food system : with the specified concerns to the recording of Heisei Rice Riot

1. 关于1993年所谓的“平成大米混乱”，我们利用零售商每月的大米销售量统计，将恐慌爆发的过程分为两个不同的阶段。前一阶段的混乱是由水稻农户自用的稻米资源短缺引发的，后一阶段的混乱是由消费者带来的。传统的稻农赠礼行为在恐慌中获得了动力。通过简单的计量经济模型阐明了恐慌从稻米生产者向消费者扩散的过程。4 .稻农持有大米库存的倾向显著影响其是否冲进大米零售商的行为。政府或合作总部发布的旨在缓解消费者不安的信息不一定成功。中央政府发布的水稻生长指数与零售商对大米的需求有显著的统计学意义。这一结果表明，消费者，包括大米短缺的农民，受到这些信息的影响，决定改变他们的大米库存。在平成大米混乱时期，由于当时世界大米市场的“宽松”，紧急进口大米的表现总体上还不错。就抗恐慌或扩大恐慌的倾向而言，日本食品系统具有如此低下的特点，以至于管理者在面对紧急情况时应该意识到这一点。持有适量股票的重要性怎么说都不为过。利用主要报纸和地方报纸构建了大米购买恐慌过程的时间顺序表

1. With relation to the so-called Heisei Rice Confusion in 1993, we were able to classified two different stage in the process of panic eruption, using the monthly volume statistics of rice handred by retailers. The former stage confusion triggered by the shortage of rice resource for the rice farmer's domestic use and the later stage confusion brought about by consumer2. Traditional gifting rioe behavior of rice farmer was effective in gaining momentum in panic.3. The diffusion process of panic starting from rice prcducer toward ccnsumer was clarified by simple econometric model.4. The propensity of holding rice stock by rice farmers affected significantly their behavior about whether they rushed to rice retailer or not.5. Information issued by the government or or cooperative headquarter to aim to mitigate consumer's uneasiness was not necessarily successful. The release of growth index of paddy rice by central government has the statisticaly significant relation with the demand for rice at retailer. This result implies that consumer including rice shortage farmer, were affected by this information to make decision to change their rice stock.6. The performance of the emergent import of rice at the Heisei Rioe Confusion was by and large not bad with such reservation as the 'loose' world rice market at tha time.7. In terms of panic resistance, or propensity to extend panic, Japanese food-system has so inferior characteristics that the administrator should aware this point when confronted by emergent condition.8. The importance of holding appropriate volume of stock can not be exaggerated to say.9. The chronological table of rice purchasing panic process was constructed by using major and local newspapers