An Empirical Analysis on the Joint Choice of Marriage, Childbirth, and Labor Force Participation of Women from Panel Data in Four Countries

该项目利用日本、韩国、俄罗斯和牙买加的微观数据，旨在分析女性在婚姻、生育和劳动力参与方面的选择。日本和韩国的分析结果如下：(A)根据离散选择模型，(1)良好的教育导致晚婚、少生育和更多的劳动力参与；(2)年龄影响婚姻，丈夫的收入和孩子的存在影响韩国的劳动力供给；(3)在韩国，丈夫的高收入导致孩子多，而在日本，丈夫的高教育导致孩子少。(B)根据生命周期的动态离散决策模型，(1)受教育程度较高的女性劳动力供给对效用的负面影响较小，(2)受过大学教育的女性找到全职工作的概率为18%，其他人为13%，(3)婚姻对效用的影响显著为负，(4)0-2岁的婴儿成本高，全职工作的第二胎及以后的孩子受益，而第一个孩子成本高。对比日韩两国已婚女性，：(1)日韩两国低薪工作成本高，高薪工作成本低；(2)日本第一胎和第二胎受益少，第三胎受益少，韩国甚至成本高。在韩国，生男孩好处多多。

This project has aimed to analyze women's choice of marriage, childbearing, and labor force participation, using micro data from Japan, Korea, Russia, and Jamaica. Analysis results of Japan and Korea are as follows.(A)According to a discrete choice model, (1)better education leads later marriage, fewer childbirth, and more labor force participation, (2)age affects marriage, 'and husband's earnings and the existence of children affect labor supply in Korea, and (3)higher income of the husband leads having more children in Korea, while better education of the husband leads fewer children in Japan.(B)According to a dynamic discrete decision model of life-cycle, (1)negative effects of labor supply on utility are smaller for better educated women, (2)probabilities to find full-time position are 18% for the university educated, and 13% for others, (3)an effect of marriage on utility is significantly negative, and (4)infants ages 0-2 are costly, and the second or subsequent children benefit while the first child is costly when working full-time in Japan. In comparison of married women in Japan and Korea, (1)low-wage work is costly while high-wage work is less costly both in Japan and Korea, and (2)first and second children benefit while the third child benefits less in Japan and even is costly in Korea. Having boys benefits much in Korea.