System Analysis of Complex Features of Socio-Economic Structure based on the Complex Theory and its Application to the Risk Analysis

本课题主要研究社会经济动态系统的复杂性分析及其在风险分析中的应用。本课题的研究成果实现了本课题的三个研究目的：1）复杂社会经济动态的风险分析与风险管理; 2）基于复杂性理论的系统性能观测与自组织结构分析; 3）系统动力学的宏观经济学表述与复杂性理论在预测与控制中的应用。该项目的基本方法是根据具有原始数学描述结构的自组织系统概念制定社会经济动态，并应用不确定性理论，如GA，模糊推理系统，分形和混沌理论。采用多级模糊推理系统对推理过程进行语言描述，并将其应用于模具的优化设计 ...更多信息 机械系统此外，还总结了日本企业在动态环境下的风险管理和决策的许多实例，作为一个数据库，也为公共经济学提供了许多实例。提出了一种改进的用于大规模观测聚类的模糊推理系统的新方法。作为不确定性规划问题的一个典型应用，提出了宏观经济模型的网络结构，并利用课题组在复杂性理论和系统动力学最优化方面的研究成果解决了该问题。课题组成员和国内外相关研究人员在这方面开展了大量合作工作。该项目的成果以论文形式在日本运筹学会、日本信息处理学会、日本电子、信息和通信工程学会等几个学术团体发表。少

The project treated the analysis of complex feature of the socio-economic dynamics and its application to the risk analysis based on the complex theory. As the result of project three purposed of the project was realized, namely, 1) risk analysis and risk management of complex socio-econoinic dynamic, 2) observation of system performance based on the complex theory and the analysis of self-organization structure, 3) macro-economic formulation for the system dynamics and the application of the complex theory to the prediction and control. The basic approach of the project was the formulation of the socio-economic dynamics based on the concept of self-organizing system which has original mathematically descriptive structure, and the application of theories of uncertainty such as the GA, the fuzzy inference system, and the fractal and chaos theory. The multi-stage fuzzy inference system was used to describe the inference in a linguistic manner, and it was applied to the optimization of dy … More namical system. Moreover, many examples of the risk management and decision making in the Japanese firms in the dynamical environment were summarized as a database, and also many example for the public economics. A novel method was proposed for the improvement of the fuzzy inference system used for the clustering of a large sized observation. As a typical application for the planning problem under uncertainty, the network-based structure for the macro-economics model was proposed, and the problem was solved by using our works in the project in the complex theory and the optimization of system dynamics.In these field, many corporate works were carried out among the members of the project as well as related researchers in Japanese and foreign countries. The result of the project was published in the form of papers in several academic societies such as the Operations Research Society of Japan, the Information Processing Society of Japan, the Institute of Electronics, Information and Comiminication Engineering, Japan. Less