A study on the variation in the stratospheric water vapor and the surface area of Polar Stratospheric Clouds of the future atmosphere

为了研究火山喷发增加的硫酸盐气溶胶对气候的影响，采用一维化学-辐射耦合模型进行了计算。在基于激光雷达和气球观测的计算中，假定了硫化气溶胶的尺寸分布。根据粒度分布计算了比表面积。研究发现，大气臭氧的减少主要是由于大气温度的降低。硫化气溶胶上的非均相反应加速了气溶胶对红外辐射的吸收而引起的升温的温度恢复。我们在CCSR/NIES化学气候模式(CCM)中加入了硫酸盐化学，成功地模拟了硫气溶胶的三维分布。在CCSR/NIES CCM的基础上发展了一个三维Nudning化学输送模式(CTM)，用于研究冬季副热带西太平洋臭氧总量低于220DU的低值区域。结果表明，ICE和NAT粒子的非均相反应对臭氧的影响约为2-3DU，小于QBO引起的臭氧变化(约5DU)，但不可忽略。在人工增加平流层水汽1ppmv的情况下，进行了CTM计算，研究了水汽对未来大气中臭氧空洞的影响。我们在模型的臭氧空洞中找不到任何戏剧性的变化。虽然气溶胶的尺寸分布和折射率是根据观测数据进行的，但这些参数对于未来的大气并不一定也是可以接受的。只有正确理解水蒸气的传输机制，才能正确认识水蒸气对未来大气中臭氧消耗的影响。

Calculations were performed by a 1-D chemistry-radiation coupled model in order to study the effects of sulfuric aerosols increased by a volcanic eruption on climate. The size distribution of the sulfuric aerosols was assumed in the calculation based on the lidar and balloon observations. The surface area was calculated from the size distribution. It is found that the ozone decrease due. to the heterogeneous reactions on the sulfuric aerosols accelerates the temperature recovery from the warming due to the absorption of the infrared radiation by the aerosols. We included the sulfate chemistry into the CCSR/NIES chemical climate model (CCM) and successfully simulated the 3-dimensional (3-D) distribution of sulfuric aerosols. A 3-D nudging chemical transport model (CTM) was also developed from the CCSR/NIES CCM and used to investigate the low total ozone values less than 220 DU in the subtropical Western Pacific in winter. The results show that the effect of heterogeneous reactions on ICE and NAT particles on the ozone amount is about 2-3 DU, which is smaller than the ozone variation due to QBO (around 5 DU), but not negligible. The low ozone amount in this region should be monitored carefully in the future.A CTM calculation was performed with stratospheric water vapor amounts increased artificially by 1 ppmv to investigate the water vapor effect on Ozone Hole in the future atmosphere. We could not find any dramatic change in the ozone hole of the model. Although the size distribution and the refractive index of the aerosols were assumed based on observations for this calculation, it is not necessarily true that these parameters are also acceptable for the future atmosphere. A correct knowledge of the water vapor effect on ozone depletion in the future atmosphere will not be obtained until the mechanisms of water vapor transport are correctly understood.