Quantification of vehicle collision risk in smart way traffic environment to decrease traffic accidents

针对智能交通系统中智能道路的7起交通事故风险，提出了智能道路引入后的事故风险量化方法，并从数值上阐明了事故的减少效果，选取了具有代表性的事故实例，建立了基于人对可接受风险的最大标准假设的模型。定义了关于与碰撞车辆的不安全关系、不安全关系的发生概率和不安全动作概率的三个识别结果。通过将它们的关系公式化，定量地示出驾驶员的识别、判断和行动之间的关系。然后，通过证明该模型理论推导出的事故识别错误与判断错误的比值与现有事故数据的等价性，给出了该模型的支持性证据，并将该方法应用于其他事故。假设了一个安全装置，它给出了一个危险的车辆的警告，并定量地评估了减少事故的效果。考虑到故障缺乏警告的安全装置，缺乏警告的必要水平，以减少事故。事实证明，非常高精度的设备，接近工程实现能力，需要从严重依赖于设备的驾驶员和宽松的可靠性设备，需要从独立于设备的驾驶员。结果还表明，安全设备可能能够告诉完全依赖设备的驾驶员危险，但不应该保证安全。

This study focused attention on the risk of seven traffic accidents targeted for the smart way concerned with Intelligent Transport Systems and proposed a methodology to quantify the accident risk after the introduction of the smart-way, and then clarified reduction effects of accidents numerically.Representative example of the accidents was selected to describe a model which is based on a supposition that people has maximum standard of the acceptable risk. Three recognition results about an unsafe relation with a collision vehicle, occurrence probability of the unsafe relation and an unsafe action probability are defined. By formulating their relation, a relation between the recognition, the judgment and the action by a driver is shown quantitatively. Then, supporting evidence for this model is given by showing that a ratio derived by this model theoretically between the recognition errors and judgment errors in accidents was equivalent to existing accident data.This methodology was applied to the other accidents. A safety device, which gives a warning of a dangerous vehicle, was assumed and a reduction effect of accidents was evaluated quantitatively. Considering a failure lacking a warning by a safety device, necessary level of lacking a warning to reduce accidents was derived. It turns out that the extremely highly precise device, near to realization inability for engineering, is demanded from the driver who depends heavily on a device and relaxed reliability device is demanded from the driver who is independent on a device. And also a result was shown that a safety device might be able to tell the driver who depends completely on a device about danger but should not guarantee security.