Future projection of atmospheric environmental change by anthropogenic activities in Asia-Future chemical weather mapping-

在包括中国在内的亚洲发展中国家，人为活动造成的空气污染排放迅速增加。例如，在中国，氮氧化物排放量在1980-2003年间增加了2.5倍；自2000年以来，这种上升趋势有所加剧。这些排放增加引发区域空气污染，包括对流层臭氧和气溶胶，并对健康、粮食生产和生态系统产生不利影响。此外，区域空气污染影响气候变化，对人类和生态系统造成巨大损害的灾难性可能性与空气污染相结合。此外，东亚地区的空气污染影响全球范围的空气质量，是公认的世界性环境问题。本研究的目的是：(1)未来亚洲空气污染物排放的预估；(2)发展大气环境变化预测的模拟系统；(3)对流层臭氧和气溶胶的化学天气图。对2020年的未来预测，我们提供了中国基于REF、PSC和PFC三种排放情景的三种排放数据，以及其他国家基于REF的排放数据。在2000-2020年期间，预计的PSC氮氧化物排放量在中国略有下降（-10%），但其他情景的氮氧化物排放量大幅增加（REF为39%，PFC为128%）。由于2000-2020年（REF）东北亚地区（包括中国中部和东部、朝鲜半岛和日本部分地区）人为排放的变化，臭氧年平均浓度增加了约5 ppbv。此外，预估的PFC排放意味着华北平原月平均臭氧增加超过20ppbv。在2000-2020年期间，尽管日本的氮氧化物排放量有所减少，但PFC情景下的日本表面臭氧也有所增强。

In Asian developing countries, including China, air pollution emissions caused by anthropogenic activities have increased rapidly. For example, in China, NOx emissions increased by 2.5 times during 1980-2003; this upward tendency has been exacerbated since 2000. These emission increases trigger regional air pollution including tropospheric ozone and aerosols and undesired influences on health, food production, and ecosystems. Moreover, regional air pollution influences climate change, presenting the calamitous possibility of considerable damage to both humans and ecosystems combined with air pollution. In addition, air pollution in east Asia influences global-scale air quality and is recognized as a worldwide environmental issue. The aim of this study is (1) future projections of emissions for air pollutants in Asia, (2) development of modeling system for prediction of atmospheric environmental change, (3) chemical weather mapping of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Future projections for 2020, we has provided three types of emissions data based on three emissions scenarios of REF, PSC, and PFC for China and emissions data based on REF for other countries. The projected PSC NOx emission caused a slight decrease (-10%) during 2000-2020 in China, but the other scenarios imparted a large increase (39% for the REF and 128% for the PFC). Annually averaged ozone concentrations increased by approximately 5 ppbv because of changes in anthropogenic emission for 2000-2020 (REF) over northeast Asia including central and east China, the Korean Peninsula, and parts of Japan. Additionally, the projected PFC emissions imply an increase of monthly averaged ozone of more than 20 ppbv in the North China Plain. Surface ozone under the PFC scenario is also enhanced in Japan during 2000-2020 in spite of the reduction of NOx emission in Japan.