Development of Dynamic Applied General Equilibrium Models for Evaluating lntecgenerational and Intertemporal allocations of Resources

(1)通过GTAP数据库与IEA能源与二氧化碳数据库的匹配，构建了多区域、多部门的社会核算矩阵。(2)利用社会会计矩阵，建立了两种可选的动态应用一般均衡模型。一种是前瞻性模型，另一种是递归动态模型。这两个模型都是在GAMS/MPSGE上开发的，这是最流行的建模平台之一。选择两种备选方案取决于分析目的。(3)在开发动态模型时，应安排社会核算矩阵以满足动态均衡条件。我们为此开发了几种算法。(4)在前瞻性动态模型中，对未来的预期变化对当前决策起着重要作用。我们说明了2008年至2012年期间基于《京都议定书》的承诺对2008年之前的世界经济有很强的影响。这些运动也没有得到观测数据的证实。我们还研究了后京都框架，这是世界上最重要的话题。我们提出了许多基于几个场景的模拟。-然后，我们提供了回报表，以评估每个提议作为后京都框架。(5)运用动态一般均衡模型分析了贸易投资自由化对世界经济的影响。世界经济受到国家间冲突的影响。根据我们的分析，自由化对特定国家的特定行业有负面影响，但我们可以说明世界经济总体上受益。我们的结论是，世界各国应该讨论基于模型的模拟结果所减少的收益。(6)最后，我们建立了假设决策者寿命有限的重叠生成模型。由于解决问题带来的痛苦，决策往往会延迟。我们说明，当代人倾向于把自己的负担，如二氧化碳排放引起的气候变化，转嫁给下一代。我们提出法律规定的低贴现率是避免决策延迟的合适选择。少

(1) We developed multi-regional and multi-sectoral social accounting matrix by matching the GTAP database and IEA energy and CO2 database.(2) By using the social accounting matrix, we developed two alternative types of dynamic applied general equilibrium model. The one is forward-looking model, and the other is recursive dynamic model. Both models are developed on GAMS/MPSGE, which is one of the most popular platforms for modeling. Selection of two alternatives depends on the analytical purposes.(3) In the case of developing dynamic models, the social accounting matrix should be arranged for satisfying dynamic equilibrium conditions. We developed several algorithms for this arrangement.(4) In the case of forward-looking dynamic model, an expected change in the future plays an important role in the current decisions. We illustrated that the commitments based on the Kyoto Protocol during the period 2008 to 2012 have strong impacts on the world economy before 2008. These movements are als … More o validated by the observed data. We also study about the post Kyoto framework, which is the most important topic in the world. We presented lots of simulations based on several scenarios. - Then, we provided pay-off tables in order to evaluate each proposition as the post Kyoto framework.(5) We also use our dynamic general equilibrium model for analyzing the impacts of trade and investment liberalization on the world economy. The world economy suffers from conflicts among countries. According to our analysis, liberalization has negative impacts on specific industry in specific country, but we can illustrate that the world economy get benefit in total. Our conclusion is that countries in the world should discuss the pay-offs reduced by simulations results based on the models.(6) Finally, we developed overlapping generation model where decision makers are assumed to live finite. Decision making tends to delay because of pains caused by solving problems. We illustrated that the current generation tends to send their own burdens such as climate change caused by CO2 emissions to the future generation. We proposed that low discount rate committed in law is appropriate for avoiding delay in decisions. Less