Ground-atmosphere modelling of mountain permafrost evolution: Strategies to combine RCM and subsurface simulations

在该项目范围内，应将区域气候模拟与永久冻土特有的地下模型结合起来，以评估阿尔卑斯山永久冻土区对气候变化的敏感性。由于最先进的区域气候模型(RCM；10公里×10公里)和多年冻土影响研究的地下模型(&lt；250米)在空间尺度上的巨大差异，一个有意义的联系涉及开发适当的数值和统计技术，用于将区域气候模型情景时间序列与永久冻土演化模型进行时空耦合。将根据山区永久冻土特定的大气强迫参数(辐射、2米温度、积雪持续时间)以及主要天气系统频率的变化，开发适当的缩小尺度技术。在现有土壤-植被-大气-运输(SVAT)模型的基础上，将开发一个山区永久冻土特定地下模型，以分析地下温度和冰含量(永久冻土退化或沉积)可能的演变情景。将对Bündel的不同山区永久冻土试验场进行模拟，并通过所有Bündel合作伙伴以及PERMOS(永久冻土监测瑞士)和PACE(欧洲永久冻土和气候)网络的数据集进行验证。

Within this project regional climate simulations shall be combined with a permafrost specific subsurface model for assessing the sensitivity of Alpine permafrost regions to climate change. Due to large differences in spatial scales between state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCM; 10 km x 10 km) and subsurface models for permafrost impact studies (< 250 m), a meaningful link involves development of adequate numerical and statistical techniques for spatio-temporal coupling of RCM scenario time series to permafrost evolution models. Suitable downscaling techniques will be developed based on mountain permafrost specific atmospheric forcing parameters (radiation, 2 m temperature, snow cover duration) as well as changes in frequency of dominant weather systems. Based on an existing soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transport (SVAT) model, a mountain permafrost specific subsurface model will be developed to analyse probable evolution scenarios of subsurface temperature and ice content (permafrost degradation or aggradation). Simulations will be conducted for the various mountain permafrost test sites of the Bündel and validated through data sets from all Bündel partners as well as PERMOS (Permafrost Monitoring Switzerland) and PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe) networks.