An integrative framework for human reasoning and judgment based on adaptive heuristics

本研究的目的是实证和计算揭示人类自适应推理和判断的本质，并构建一个理论框架，提供了一个综合的角度对各种各样的现象。我们在因果推理和概率判断方面取得了显著的成绩。我们阐明了双因素启发式模型的描述有效性和适应合理性，并使用等概率假设解释了包括基本比率谬误在内的各种思维错误。

The purpose of this study was to empirically and computationally reveal the nature of human adaptive heuristics for reasoning and judgment and to construct a theoretical framework that provides an integrative perspective on a wide variety of phenomena. We have obtained a significant achievenent With regard to causal reasoning and probability judgment. We clarified the descriptive validity and adaptive rationality of the dual-factor heuristic model and we explained various errors in thinking including the base rate fallacy using the equiprobability hypothesis.