The probability of Endogenous Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy

使用两部门实际经济周期模型，我研究了劳动力和资本所得税税率如何影响内生波动的可能性。得出的结论是，与劳动所得税不同，资本所得税的存在提高了内生波动的概率。基于两期OLG模型，本文还考察了信贷市场不完善程度与贫困陷阱出现之间的理论关系。在这种生长模型中，高、中、低三种稳态并存。我的分析证明，随着金融市场更加不完善，经济不可避免地陷入贫困陷阱。

Using a two-sector real business cycle model, I examined how labor and capital income tax rates influence the possibility of endogenous fluctuations. The obtained result is that unlike labor income taxes, the existence of capital income taxes enhances the probability of endogenous fluctuations.Based on two-period OLG model, I also investigated the theoretical relationship between the degree of credit market imperfection and the appearance of poverty traps. In this growth model, there coexist high-, middle-and low-steady states. I analytically proved that the economy is inevitable trapped in the poverty traps, as financial market are more imperfect.