Study on the Statistics Observation System and Econometrics Model for Global Flow of Funds Analysis

本研究阐述了全球资金流动的机理，并从储蓄-投资平衡、经常平衡流动和国际资本流动三个不同的角度进行了理论分析。然后以经济学理论为基础，构建全球资金流动分析的联立方程模型，并运行该模型来解释日、中、美三国对外资金流动的特征和镜像关系。本研究还考察了全球资金流动和宏观经济的持续增长对金融体系稳定性的影响，并参考国际货币基金组织的金融稳定研究所框架，构建了全球资金流动的统计监测体系。然后将实体经济学与金融经济学联系起来，将国内资金流动与国际资本流动结合起来，构建反映资金对外流动风险的综合指数（CI）。此外，本研究还开发了财务压力指数来衡量中国对外资金流动的现状。

This research explained the mechanism of global-flow-of-funds and made an outlines of theoretical analysis from three different viewpoints which the Balance of Savings-Investment, Current Balance flows, and International Capital Flow. Then based on the theory of economics, built a simultaneous-equations model for global-flow-of-funds analysis, and ran the model to interpret the characteristics and mirror image relationship in the external flow of funds between Japan, China and the US. This research also inspected the influence of global-flow-of-funds and the continual growth of macro economy on the stability of financial systems, and built a statistical monitoring system for global-flow-of-funds while referring to the FSIs frameworks of International Monetary Funds. Then linked real economics with financial economics, and combined domestic flow of funds with international capital flows, to build a composite index(CI) that reflects the risks involved in external flow of funds. Moreover, this research developed the Finance Stress Index to measure the current status of Chinese external flow of funds.