Financial Market Development and Macroeconomic Instability

（1）构建了一个金融市场不完备的动态一般均衡模型，证明了金融市场的发展会对经济产生不稳定性。(2)根据日本企业层面的数据，我们发现，在90年代中期以前，无论是制造业还是非制造业，企业的银行借款、债券、贸易信贷等融资方式对流动资产的替代性都很强，但到了90年代后期，这种关系减弱了。(3)在两阶段模型中引入不确定性，我们证明了不确定性的程度会影响各种投资行为，并且不确定性的影响方向取决于不确定性的性质。(4)通过构建一个包含金融市场摩擦的世代重叠模型，我们发现，在存在信贷约束的情况下，即使在动态有效的经济中，资产泡沫也会出现，并且这些泡沫会破坏经济的稳定性。

The main results obtained in this project are summarized as follows(1) Constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model with financial market imperfections, we showed that the development of financial market in an economy could destabilize the economy.(2) Using Japanese firm level data, we showed that until the mid of 1990s firms' financing methods such as corporate borrowings from banks, bonds and trade credits were strongly substitutable to liquid asset holdings in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors and that this relationship was weakened in the late 1990s.(3) Introducing Knightian uncertainty into two-period models, we showed that the degree of Knightian uncertainty affects various kinds of investment behavior and that the direction of the effects of Knightian uncertainty depends on the nature of the uncertainty.(4) Constructing an overlapping generations model with financial market frictions, we showed that in the presence of credit constraints asset bubbles can emerge even in a dynamically efficient economy and that these bubbles can destabilize the economy.