Fluctuations of Commodity Prices and Financial Crisis in Resource-Rich Countries

这项研究项目的目标有两个。第一个目标是审查商品价格的决定因素和价格变动的特点。我们发现，大宗商品价格变得更容易受到流动性扩张(或流动性紧缩)的影响，与股价的相关性也更强。第二个目标是调查外国资本流入资源丰富国家的决定因素。研究发现，大宗商品价格上涨和汇率弹性促进了短期投机性资本流入，从而可能加剧资源诅咒。

The objectives of this research projects are two-fold. The first objective is to examine determinants of commodity prices and characteristics of price movements. We found that commodity prices have become more susceptible to liquidity expansion(or liquidity squeeze) and more correlated with stock prices. Second objective is to investigate the determinants of foreign capitalflows into resource-rich countries. It is revealed that the commodity price boomand foreign exchange rate flexibility promote short-term speculative capital inflows, which might aggravate the resource curse.