Studies on intergenerational redistribution polices of the 80s, 90s, and 2000s in Japan

本文运用代际核算方法，对日本在20世纪80年代、90年代和21世纪初采取的代际再分配政策进行了分析。许多以前的研究，使用代间核算考虑在一个时间点的代际再分配的程度，并进行模拟，以确定政策变化将如何改善代际不平衡。与此相对，本文不是从一个点出发，而是从时间序列来考察代际再分配，结果表明，90年代实施的政策减轻了包括20多岁在内的当代人的负担，同时也将负担转移到了后代人身上。这种情况持续了2000年代的前半期，但在2000年代的后半期发生了变化，当代人的终身净负担越来越重，而后代人的终身净负担则减少了。然而，未来一代终身净负担的下降只能通过增加年轻一代的终身净负担来实现，而不是通过减少退休一代剩余的终身净福利来实现。此外，对1992年和2002年人口预测的比较表明，人口数字向下修正。换句话说，人口老龄化加剧，出生率下降幅度超过预期，使下一代的终身净负担增加了约32%。

This paper uses the generational accounting method to analyze the intergenerational redistribution policies adopted by Japan in the 1980s, 1990s, and the 2000s. Many previous studies that use generational accounting consider the extent of intergenerational redistribution at a single point in time and conduct simulations to determine how policy changes will improve intergenerational imbalances. In contrast, this paper examines intergenerational redistribution using a time series, not just a single point.The results show that the policies implemented in the 1990s led to the transfer of burdens onto future generations while reducing the burden of the present generation, including those in their 20s. This situation lasted through the first half of the 2000s, but changed in the latter half of the 2000s, when the lifetime net burden of the present generation grew heavier while that of the future generation diminished. However, the decline in the lifetime net burden of the future generation was achieved only by increasing the lifetime net burden of those in the young generation, not by reducing the remaining lifetime net benefit of the retired generation. Moreover, a comparison of population projections made in 1992 and in 2002 reveals that population numbers were revised downward. In other words, the population aged more and the birthrate declined more than expected, increasing the lifetime net burden of the future generation by approximately 32%.