Development of observation system for forecasting heavy rainfall.

利用模拟和实际的C波段偏振雷达数据，开发了一种预报极短期降雨的方法，以检测产生强局地降雨的潜在危险对流云。分析了两种积云单体，其中一种发展并后来产生了暴雨，而另一种则没有。偏振雷达的观测表明，在地面暴雨开始前约10分钟，明显形成了一个高垂直最大降雨率强度和一个高于冰冻水平的垂直差异反射率增强区域，通常被称为高ZDR柱。结果表明，根据偏振测量估计的垂直最大降雨率强度和高ZDR柱都可以用来识别潜在的危险云。

A method for forecasting very short-term rainfall to detect potentially hazardous convective cloud that produces heavy local rainfall was developed using simulation and actual C-band polarimetric radar data. Two kinds of cumulus cells were analyzed, one of which developed and later produced heavy rainfall, whereas the other did not. Observations made by polarimetric radar revealed that a high vertical maximum intensity of rainfall rate and a vertical area of enhanced differential reflectivity extending above the freezing level, often termed a high ZDR column, were clearly formed about 10 min prior to the onset of heavy rainfall on the ground. The results suggest that both the vertical maximum intensity of the rainfall rate and a high ZDR column, estimated from polarimetric measurements, can be used to identify potentially hazardous clouds