A MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS ON EFFECT OF REPRODUCTIVE SCHEDULE PATTERN ON EXTINCTION PROBABILITY OF PERENNIAL PLANTS

对生活史参数变化对种群增长率的影响进行了理论研究。应用种群矩阵模型对两种河岸树种的影响进行了评价。通过生命表响应实验（life table response experiment， LTRE），确定了鼻甲七叶树种群动态的关键过程和阶段是幼鱼个体的生长。在此基础上，开发了基于种群矩阵模型并结合景观动态的模拟程序。我们发现，如果没有桅杆的行为，这个种群是无法维持的。另一方面，在紫杉树中，即使捕获频率很低，它也能保持。

Theoretical study is conducted to evaluate the effects of variation in life history parameters on population growth rate. The effects in two riparian tree species are also evaluated, applying population matrix models. In Aesculus turbinate, key process and stage of population dynamics is identified as growth of juvenile individuals, by life table response experiment (LTRE). Furthermore, a simulation program, which is based on population matrix models and incorporated by landscape dynamics, is developed. We found in Aesculus turbinata, that the population cannot be maintained without mast behavior. On the other hand, in Pterocarya rhoifolia, it is maintained even if the frequency of masting is very low.