ローカル・グローバル環境変動下における日本のサンゴ礁の社会・生態学的脆弱性評価

这项研究的目的是促进一项前沿研究，重点阐明与日本珊瑚礁景观有关的恢复力的时空格局，以便为海洋气候变化和人为压力时代负责沿海管理的利益相关者提供决策支持工具。社会生态系统（SES）的时空弹性映射需要关注17个空间化的压力诱导和压力缓解因素，这些因素来自于可免费获得的星载和水载观测、模型输出、历史数据库和人口普查数据。对于SES恢复力的时空映射，采用模糊逻辑将环境因素与相关种群和珊瑚的响应联系起来，如文献所示。根据各因子对恢复力的贡献进行加权后，在时间上呈现出明显的静态格局：1)生态恢复力与纬度呈负相关；2)韧性最低的岛屿位于西南群岛的东部和南部边界，地势低洼，没有宽阔的珊瑚礁屏障；(3)西南、中部和东北部岛屿具有相同的社会生态恢复力；4) Sekisei泻湖岛屿具有很高的生态恢复力。为了克服不确定性，未来的研究应侧重于社会生态适应能力、精细生态过程（如珊瑚和鱼类功能群）和未来几十年洪水风险的预测。

The purpose of this JSPS fellowship was to promote a cutting-edge research focused on the elucidation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the resilience related to Japanese coral reefscapes in order to provide a decision support tool to stakeholders tasked with coastal management in an era of oceano-climatic change and anthropogenic pressure. The mapping of the spatio-temporal resilience of socio-ecology systems (SES) required to focus on a suite of 17 spatialized stress-inducing and stress-mitigating factors derived from freely available spaceborne and waterborne observations, model output, historical databases and census data. As for the spatio-temporal mapping of the SES resilience, Fuzzy logic was employed to associate environmental factors based on the related population and coral responses, as found in the literature. Once the factors were weighted according to their resilience contributions, temporally static patterns were evident: 1) a negative correlation occurs between ecological resilience and latitude; 2) the least resilient islands are low-lying, deprived of wide reef barriers, and located on the eastern and southern boundaries of the Nansei archipelago; 3) the southwesternmost, middle and northeasternmost islands have the same socio-ecological resilience; and 4) Sekisei Lagoon islands have a very high ecological resilience. To overcome uncertainty, future studies should focus on the socio-ecological adaptive capacity, fine-scale ecological processes (such as coral and fish functional groups) and the prediction of the flood risks in the coming decades.