Forest management under the risk associated with transgenic pollen dispersal -explore forest management decisions of GM trees plantation

种植转基因（GM）树木，生长速度更快，可以通过以更高的速度从大气中吸收碳来帮助应对全球变暖，或者可以帮助满足日益增长的木材需求。然而，从保护自然种群的角度来看，转基因花粉、种子和基因移入自然种群和繁殖种群的传播可能是有害的。因此，在考虑种植转基因树木之前，必须评估转基因花粉和/或种子传播对自然种群的潜在影响。考虑种植转基因树木的森林所有者需要评估与引进转基因树木相关的收益和成本。有研究估计了需求方对转基因植物的支付意愿（WTP）（Lusk，J.L.例如，2004;霍夫曼，W. E、例如，2007年）。然而，很少有研究探讨土地管理者对转基因植物或树木的管理决策。在这项研究中，我们探讨了土地管理者的管理决策种植转基因树木考虑到转基因花粉传播的潜在影响。由于花粉和/或种子的远距离传播以及树木的长生命周期，空间和时间框架是必要的，以分析转基因花粉和/或种子传播对自然种群的潜在影响。在这里，我们开发了一个简单的模拟模型的转基因花粉传播的空间框架，并探讨森林所有者的活动，包括种植转基因树木及其对自然种群的影响。

Planting genetically modified (GM) trees, which grow faster, may help counter global warming by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere at a higher rate or may help meet a growing demand of wood materials. However, dispersal of transgenic pollen, seed and gene immigration into natural and breeding populations may be deleterious from the point of view of the conservation of natural populations. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the potential impact of transgenic pollen and/or seed dispersal on natural populations before considering planting GM trees. Forest owners who consider planting GM trees need to evaluate benefits and costs associated with introduction of GM trees. There are studies that estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for GM plants from the demand sides (Lusk, J.L. et al., 2004; Huffman, W. E., et al., 2007). However, there are few studies examining land managers` management decision on GM plants or trees. In this study we explore land managers` management decision on planting GM trees considering the potential impact of transgenic pollen dispersal. Because of long-distance dispersal of pollens and/or seeds as well as long life cycle of trees, a spatial and temporal framework is necessary for analyzing the potential impact of transgenic pollen and/or seed dispersal on natural populations. Here, we develop a simple simulation model of transgenic pollen dispersal with a spatial framework and explore forest owner`s activities that includes planting GM trees and its impact on natural populations.