The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models on short time-scales over Germany with pattern-oriented error measures

数值模式降水预报的检验是今后提高定量降水预报水平的关键。在定义QPF验证策略时有各种选择，例如时间分辨率、评估数据集的选择、验证域、天气类型分层和应用的误差测量。在这个项目中，将开发新的技术来验证德国上空天气预报模式LM、GME和ECMWF在非常短的时间尺度（通常为1小时）上的QPF。目前开发的技术是用来获得一个评估数据集的每小时降水分析从雨泥测量和雷达合成。将对主要河流系统的集水区进行验证，并将QPF分类为不同的天气模式。最后，将实施新的误差措施，考虑到降水的空间格局，而不是更传统的措施，评估两个领域的相似性，逐点的基础上。这种面向模式的方法提供了关于特定QPF的质量和缺陷的新颖且有意义的信息。其结果将直接用于业务天气预报中模型输出的解释，并用于径流预测等影响应用中的定量使用。

The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models is essential for the future improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). There are various options when defining a QPF verification strategy, concerning for instance the temporal resolution, the choice of the evaluation data set, the verification domains, the weather-type stratification and the applied error measures. In this project new techniques will be developed to verify QPFs from the weather prediction models LM, GME and ECMWF over Germany on very short time scales (typically 1 hour). A currently developed technique is used to derive an evaluation data set of hourly precipitation analyses from rain-gouge measurements and radar composites. The verifications will be done for the catchment areas of the major river systems and the QPFs will be categorized into different synoptic weather patterns. Finally, new error measures will be implemented that consider the spatial patterns of precipitation, in contrast to more traditional measures that evaluate the similarity of two fields on a point-by-point basis. Such an pattern-oriented approach provides novel and meaningful information about the qualities and deficiencies of a particular QPF. The results will be directly useful for the interpretation of model output in operational weather forecasting and for their quantitative use in impact applications such as runoff forecasting.