Development of a Climatology of Precipitation System Organization in North Carolina to Improve Climate Precipitation Forecasts

开发北卡罗来纳州降水系统气候学组织以改善气候降水预报

• 批准号: 1118141
• 负责人: Thomas Rickenbach
• 金额: $ 31.4万
• 依托单位: East Carolina University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1118141&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Development; Climatology; Precipitation; System; Organization

Since no major rivers flow into the State of North Carolina, precipitation falling within the state is the primary natural source of water to replenish that region's rivers, soils, and groundwater reservoirs. As climate and population pressures change, water management and sustainability policies in North Carolina will be increasingly dependent on an improved understanding of precipitation variability in that region.Intellectual merit:The premise of this study is that a novel climatology of precipitation system mode of delivery in North Carolina, developed with newly available high resolution precipitation and three-dimensional radar reflectivity datasets, will lead to improved regional climate and hydrological forecasts. Mode of delivery refers to the spatial, temporal and water phase characteristics of a precipitation system. Examples of mode of delivery that occur in North Carolina within various synoptic regimes include short duration and spatially heterogeneous convective cells, large mesoscale convective systems, widespread long-lasting frontal precipitation, tropical cyclones, and winter precipitation. Each mode of delivery may produce similar time-averaged precipitation totals, but have very different climate and hydrological impacts. A mode of delivery climatology will provide a unique tool for process-based downscaling of climate simulations to the watershed scale.The project will consist of three main parts, as follows. 1) The first part aims to develop and implement a methodology to identify the distinct mode of delivery of rainfall, which will be applied to five years (2006-2010) of the National Mosaic and Multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ) radar reflectivity and precipitation datasets. We will leverage a partnership between the University of North Carolina Renaissance Computing Institute, and the National Climate Data Center to analyze regional NMQ data sets constructed for this project using data-mining techniques for computational efficiency. 2) The second part of the project will examine the relationship between mode of delivery of rainfall and the dominant regimes of the synoptic-scale flow and intraseasonal-to-interannual climate variability. 3) The third part of this study will test the hypothesis that for seasonal time scales and regional spatial scales, the mode of delivery of rainfall provides a basis for the process-based downscaling (tied to different synoptic regimes) of precipitation in reanalysis products and climate model simulations.Broader impacts:The project will have significant implications for climate prediction for a region (North Carolina) where those connections have not been fully explored. The climatology will result in improvements to regional climate model forecasting and with future applications to improve hydrological simulations on the watershed scale. The project also include significant benefits to NOAA and NASA hydrological research and operational programs (NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed-Southeast and NASA Global Precipitation Mission). The project will provide a platform for undergraduate and graduate student research and training. Project results and outreach will benefit the agricultural communities in eastern North Carolina, which have been historically underserved with respect to educational and economic opportunities, while at the same time have been vulnerable to severe weather and flood-related hazards. The success of this project will improve a process-based downscaling of climate model precipitation estimates to the regional and watershed scale.

由于没有主要河流流入北卡罗来纳州，该州的降水是补充该地区河流，土壤和地下水库的主要天然水源。 随着气候和人口压力的变化，在北卡罗来纳州的水资源管理和可持续发展政策将越来越依赖于一个更好地了解降水的变化，在该region.Intellectual优点：这项研究的前提是，一种新的气候学降水系统的交付模式在北卡罗来纳州，开发新的高分辨率降水和三维雷达反射率数据集，将导致改善区域气候和水文预报。 输送方式是指降水系统的空间、时间和水相特征。发生在北卡罗来纳州的各种天气系统中的输送模式的例子包括持续时间短和空间异质的对流单体，大的中尺度对流系统，广泛持久的锋面降水，热带气旋和冬季降水。 每种输送方式可能产生类似的时间平均降水总量，但对气候和水文的影响却大不相同。 气候学的一种交付模式将为基于过程的气候模拟缩小到流域尺度提供一种独特的工具。1)第一部分的目的是制定和实施一种方法，以确定不同的降雨模式，这将适用于五年（2006-2010年）的国家镶嵌和多传感器定量降水估计（NMQ）雷达反射率和降水数据集。我们将利用北卡罗来纳州大学复兴计算研究所和国家气候数据中心之间的合作关系，使用数据挖掘技术分析为该项目构建的区域NMQ数据集，以提高计算效率。 2)该项目的第二部分将审查降雨方式与天气尺度气流和季节内至年际气候变率的主要状态之间的关系。 3)本研究的第三部分将测试的假设，即季节性的时间尺度和区域空间尺度，降雨的交付模式提供了一个基础的过程为基础的降尺度（绑定到不同的天气制度）的降水再分析产品和气候modelsimulation.Broader影响：该项目将有显着的影响，为气候预测的一个地区（北卡罗来纳州），这些连接尚未充分探讨。 气候学将改进区域气候模型预测，并在未来应用于改进流域尺度的水文模拟。 该项目还包括对NOAA和NASA水文研究和业务方案（NOAA东南水文气象试验台和NASA全球降水使命）的重大惠益。 该项目将为本科生和研究生的研究和培训提供一个平台。 项目成果和外联活动将使北卡罗来纳州东部的农业社区受益，这些社区历来在教育和经济机会方面服务不足，同时又容易受到恶劣天气和洪水灾害的影响。这一项目的成功将改进气候模型降水估计值在区域和流域尺度上的基于过程的降尺度。