Survival strategies of macroinvertebrate species under changing ambient conditions of rivers

据预测，全球变暖将改变河流的水流状况，并增加洪水和低水位等极端情况发生的频率和强度。由于物种的生命周期是适应的，我们测试了水生生物的其他生存策略在未来可能比目前观察到的更有利的假设。物种是否能够应对变化取决于它们的生命周期、生命表参数值以及它们的生态和遗传变异。本建议与另外两项关于反应的生态和遗传基础的建议有关。为了更全面地了解哪些策略适用于水流（融雪/地下水），我们开发了模拟模型。首先，基于实证研究结果和文献数据，我们得出了表现出不同生存策略的三种大型无脊椎动物物种在多大程度上适应了两种流动机制，流动机制中可变性的变化量对物种来说是可以容忍的，以及反映其微观进化潜力的中性遗传多样性的后果。其次，由于这些物种只包含三种潜在的策略（抗性阶段，幼体的再殖民化，幼体和成体的再殖民化），我们类似地研究了其他策略的表现。我们的模型通过联合提案的结果和文献数据得到验证。根据我们的模拟结果，我们预测了两种流动模式下大型无脊椎动物群落的组成。

Global warming is predicted to change flow regimes of rivers and to increase frequency and intensity of extreme situations such as floods and low waters. Since life-cycles of species are adapted, we test the hypothesis that other survival strategies of aquatic organisms than those currently observed may be favoured in the future. Whether species can cope with changes depends on their life-cycle, values of life-table parameters, and their ecological and genetic variability. The present proposal is linked to two others referring to the ecological and genetic basis of response. To derive a more general understanding of which strategies are adapted to flow regimes (snowmelt/groundwater), we develop simulation models. First, based on the results of the joined empirical studies and data from literature, we derive to which extent three macroinvertebrate species displaying different survival strategies are adapted to two flow regimes, which amount of change in variability in flow regime is tolerable for the species and what are the consequences for neutral genetic diversity reflecting their micro-evolutionary potential. Second, since these species comprise only three potential strategies (resistance stage, re-colonisation by juveniles, re-colonisation by juveniles and adults), we approach analogously the performance of other strategies. Our models are validated by results from joined proposals and data from literature. Based on our simulation results, we give predictions for the composition of macroinvertebrate assemblages under the two flow regimes studied.