気候変動に伴う波浪および波エネルギーの将来変化予測

在这个项目中，我们已经高精度地产生了50年(每个历史和未来时期为25年)的历史和未来预测的波浪气候数据，作为数据稀缺地区印度洋波浪气候数据集的可靠来源。我们首次在研究区使用了日本气象厅(JMA)产品MRI-AGCM3.2S的超分辨率风场，以考察气候变化对各种海洋现象的影响。为此，我为研究员提供了DPRI海岸工程实验室、京都大学的高速数值模拟研究设施以及模式的输入风场数据，并为在我们的集群上执行数值模式提供了科学和技术支持。对目标50年进行了模拟，产生了波浪特征，并对整个区域以及近岸地区的历史和未来预测进行了波浪气候评估。分析了风浪参数的平均值和极值，以及月、季、年变化，并将历史预测和未来预测的结果进行了比较，以研究气候变化的影响。我们提出了一个新的指标来考虑气候稳定性定义中的短期和长期变化，并确定最合适的波能提取位置。

In this project, we have produced the wave climate data for historical and future projections for 50 years (25 years in each of historical and future periods) in high accuracy as a reliable resource of wave climate dataset in data-scarce region, Indian Ocean. We used a super-resolution wind field of MRI-AGCM3.2S, a product of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), for the first time in the study area to inspect the climate change impact on various ocean phenomena. For this purpose, I provided the fellow with the research facilities from Coastal Engineering Lab, DPRI, Kyoto University for high speed numerical modeling as well as model’s input wind data, and scientific and technical support for performing the numerical model on our cluster. The modeling was performed and the wave characteristics was produced for the target 50 years, and the wave climate was assessed for historical and future projections in the whole domain and also in nearshore areas. The analysis was carried out for both mean and extreme values of the wind and wave parameters and in terms of monthly, seasonal and annual variations, and the results of historical and future projections were compared to investigate the impact of climate change. We suggested a novel index for considering both short and long-term variations in definition of climate stability and determining the most appropriate locations for wave energy extraction.