AGILE - AGnostic risk management for high Impact Low probability Events

AGILE将设计、开发和应用一个整体的方法框架和实用工具，从系统风险和弹性的角度来理解、评估、管理和沟通HILPs事件。该项目将把广泛的既有创新方法结合并整合为一种新的、可复制的多部门风险和复原力压力测试方法，以更好地：UNDERSTAND（系统理论、横向思维、战略远见、机器学习）predict（情景构建和桌面练习、多标准决策分析、机器学习）和MANAGE（弹性评估、能力发展战略培训）这些方法和服务将在一个由研究机构、非政府组织、中小企业、急救人员以及地方和地区当局组成的独特跨学科联盟中共同创建。可扩展和可复制的方法将能够识别关键社会功能的共同故障点，以响应复合低概率高影响威胁，并为风险知情的系统强化和威胁不可知的系统恢复提供建议。该项目最终将提高地方、区域和国家层面DRM利益相关者的战略和业务风险管理能力，从而加强欧洲及其他地区对新兴风险的社会抵御能力。该项目提供了手段和方法，以确保其结果产生广泛的影响，不仅可以提高对HILP风险和事件的理解、预测和管理，还可以对欧洲和国际关键政策优先事项和全球挑战做出直接和广泛的贡献，例如欧盟灾害风险管理政策（特别是UCPM）、欧洲绿色协议优先事项（欧盟气候适应战略）以及欧盟安全联盟战略。

AGILE will design, develop, and apply a holistic methodological framework and practical tools for understanding, assessing, managing, and communicating HILPs events with a systemic risk and resilience perspective. The project will combine and integrate a wide range of established and innovative methodologies into a novel and replicable multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress testing methodology to better: UNDERSTAND (Systems theory, Lateral thinking, Strategic Foresight, Machine Learning) ANTICIPATE (Scenario Building & table-top exercises, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Machine Learning) and MANAGE (Resilience assessment, capability development strategic training) These approaches and services will be co-created within a unique transdisciplinary consortium of research organisations, NGOs, SMEs, first responders, and local and regional authorities. The scalable and replicable methods will enable for the identification of common points of failure of critical societal functions in response to compounding low probability high impact threats as well as provide recommendations for both risk-informed system hardening and threat-agnostic systemic recovery. The project will ultimately improve the strategic and operational risk management capacities and capabilities of DRM stakeholders on local, regional and national level and thus strengthening the societal resilience to new and emerging risks in Europe and beyond. The project provides the means and the methodology to ensure a wide ranging impact of its results to not only improve the understanding, anticipation and management of HILP risks and events, but the direct and wide-ranging contribution to key European and international policy priorities and global challenges such as the EU disaster risk management policies (in particular UCPM), the European Green Deal priorities (EU Climate Adaptation Strategy), as well as the EU Security Union Strategy.