NET ZERO PATHWAY RESEARCH THROUGH INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL ADVANCEMENTS

实现《巴黎协定》目标的雄心使人们认识到，需要实现经济的快速和全面脱碳，这涉及到当前经济和社会的结构性转型。随着量化政策目标和一揽子政策的兴起，以及对多个维度和部门的考虑，综合评估模型及其考虑复杂关系和提供校准数值结果的能力在过去十年中变得越来越重要。PRISMA项目旨在将这些模型提升到一个新的水平，重点关注四个关键领域的改进，即分配正义和效率的表现、创新和金融、气候影响和土地利用影响、生活方式的改变和循环。在这四个关键领域，我们将改进现有的大规模集成模型和行业模型，并考虑在适用的情况下将不同模型联系起来。这些领域的两个交叉主题是改进分析的时间和空间分辨率，以及经济中破坏性和结构性变化的表现。值得注意的是，我们将以欧洲为重点，增加空间粒度，并研究快速脱碳途径的年度，特别是近期详细建模。广泛的模型开发将从一开始就通过一个交互式的利益相关者参与过程共同设计，并注重模型的开放性和可用性，以确保利益相关者和政策的相关性。此外，PRISMA将重点分析欧盟55项一揽子政策的Fit频谱，制定有针对性的稳健和有弹性的净零路径，并评估关键变量和结果的不确定性。PRISMA还将为国际气候评估、大量开放的建模工具和数据库，包括所有国家的能力建设和传播活动提供关键见解。

The ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement goals has led to the realization that a rapid and full decarbonization of the economy is required, involving a structural transition of the current economy and society. With the rise of quantified policy targets, policy packages, and consideration of multiple dimensions and sectors, Integrated Assessment Models with their ability to consider complex relationships and provide calibrated numerical results have become ever more important in the last decade. The PRISMA project aims to bring these models to the next level by focusing on four key areas of improvement, namely the representation of distributional justice and efficiency, innovation and finance, climate impacts and land-use implications, and lifestyle change and circularity. In these four key areas we will improve existing large-scale IAMs and sectorial models, and consider the linking of different models where applicable. Two cross-cutting shared themes across these areas are the improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis, and the representation of disruptive and structural change in the economy. Notably we will increase the spatial granularity with a focus on Europe, and look at the yearly and in particular near term detailed modeling of rapid decarbonization pathways. The extensive model development will be co-designed through an interactive stakeholder engagement process from the beginning, and focus on model openness and usability to ensure the stakeholder and policy relevance. Moreover, PRISMA will focus in its application on the analysis of the spectrum of Fit for 55 package policies of the EU developing focalized robust and resilient Net zero pathways and assess the uncertainty around key variables and outcomes. PRISMA will also provide key insights to international climate assessments, a large number of open modelling tools and databases, including capacity building and dissemination activities for all countries.