Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Evaluation of READI Chicago

摘要 年轻的黑人男子被枪杀的可能性是他们的白色同行的20倍，更多的人失去了他们的生命。 死亡率比接下来的九个主要死亡原因的总和还要高（CDC 2020）。芝加哥， 2016年和2020年，凶杀案激增50%以上，这是这个问题的一个明显例子： 一把枪与许多城市一样，受害者绝大多数是来自少数弱势群体的年轻黑人男子。 邻里关系尽管这种暴力行为造成了极高的社会成本，但很少有干预措施。 我已经考虑了找到那些最有可能参与枪击事件的人并提供他们的有效性， 经济、行为和个人支持服务，而不是更多的执法。 该项目是一项随机对照试验（RCT），旨在对枪支风险最高的男性进行新的干预 暴力，旨在测试行为知情，社会服务为基础的方法。快速就业和 发展倡议（READI）确定了芝加哥男性参与枪击事件的最高风险 通过三种方法：基于行政逮捕和受害记录的机器学习预测; 在所服务的社区工作的街道外展工作人员的转介;以及对离开的人进行筛选 监狱和监狱。然后，READI提供18个月的支持，补贴工作以及认知行为 CBT和个人发展规划。READI建立在先前CBT RCT的证据基础上- 发现它可以大大减少暴力和其他犯罪行为（Blattman等人， 2017; Heller等人，2017年），这表明有可能减少社会成本最高的暴力形式 而不会产生加强执法工作的附带成本。 在三年的时间里，2,456名男性被随机分配到提供READI的治疗组或对照组 自由地追求其他可用的服务。这是个人层面枪支暴力的最大RCT 迄今为止进行的干预。这项研究的主要目标是衡量对严重暴力的影响结果 参与和其他犯罪行为使用行政逮捕和受害记录。的丰富数据 来源和实验设计也使我们有机会了解如何以及每一个招聘 方法预测实际的射击和暴力参与。因为在一个人和另一个人之间 参与者的风险水平和他们对治疗的反应，我们还将分析风险的变化， 采用率，以及对招聘方法的影响，告诉我们社会最佳目标。 最后，我们将结合联合收割机的影响结果、定性数据收集和效益成本比较， 对城市解决严重暴力的巨大社会成本的努力产生了更广泛的政策影响。

Abstract Young Black men are 20 times as likely to be fatally shot than their White counterparts, and more lose their lives to homicide than the next nine leading causes of death combined (CDC 2020). Chicago, which saw homicides spike by over 50% in 2016 and 2020, is a stark example of this problem: over 90% of cases involved a firearm. As in many cities, the victims are overwhelmingly young Black men from a handful of disadvantaged neighborhoods. Despite the extremely high social cost generated by this kind of violence, few interventions have considered the effectiveness of finding those most likely to be involved in shootings, and providing them with economic, behavioral, and personal support services instead of more law enforcement. This project is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a new intervention for men at the highest risk of gun violence, designed to test a behaviorally-informed, social service-based approach. The Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) identifies men in Chicago at the highest risk of being involved in a shooting via three methods: machine learning predictions based on administrative arrest and victimization records; referrals from street outreach staff working in the communities served; and screening among those leaving prison and jail. READI then provides 18 months of supported, subsidized work alongside cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and personal development programming. READI builds on evidence from prior RCTs of CBT- based programming that find it can dramatically reduce violence and other criminal behavior (Blattman et al., 2017; Heller et al., 2017), suggesting it may be possible to reduce the most socially costly forms of violence without incurring the collateral costs of stepped-up law enforcement efforts. Over three years, 2,456 men were randomly assigned either to a treatment group offered READI or a control group free to pursue other available services. This is the largest RCT of an individual-level gun violence intervention conducted to date. The study’s primary goal is to measure impact results on serious violence involvement and other criminal behavior using administrative arrest and victimization records. The rich data sources and experimental design also gives us the opportunity to learn how well each of the recruitment methods anticipates actual shooting and violence involvement. Since there could be a trade-off between a participant’s risk level and their responsiveness to treatment, we will also analyze what the variation in risk, take-up rates, and program impacts across recruitment methods teach us about socially optimal targeting. Lastly, we will combine impact results, qualitative data collection, and a benefit-cost comparison to draw out broader policy implications about cities’ efforts to address the enormous social costs of serious violence.