Improving Causal Inferences in Child and Family Behavioral Research

项目摘要/摘要 大多数经验性支持的儿童行为问题治疗方法都是由父母实施的，但 最近的荟萃分析发现，它们现在的有效性是50年前的一半。基本的育儿研究已经 未能改善这些治疗，部分原因是其因果有效性不足。两种基本方法中的一种 对于纵向变化的分析，ANCOVA类型的残差分数分析对于原因分析是首选的 估计，但根据最近的数据，他们受到稳定的预先存在的结果分数差异的影响 评论。但是，另一种方法，差值分析，统计能力较弱，不能轻易地测试关键 预测X处理交互作用。这项研究旨在通过测试 前景看好的创新称为多场合数据的双中心ANCOVA。这是Huitema的修改 以后测分数(新的)和前测分数(准)为中心的准ANCOVA 意思是。居中预测测验使两个变化分数的结果彼此一致，而居中则使两个变化分数的结果一致 围绕前测小组的后测分数意味着保持所有变化的分数不变。它避免了在 通过复制差异分数分析的结果进行标准ANCOVA，但保留了ANCOVA的优势： 更多的统计能力和能力来测试X处理交互作用的预测测试。 为了比较测试偏差的“真实”因果效应，这项研究模拟了两个三次数据集以符合 每个传统的变化分数分析的假设都是空的。它还测试纠正措施的纵向数据 由父母或专业人士在随机试验中被证明是有效的。抑郁症治疗(药物治疗 和治疗)、儿童就诊次数和超时时间将分别在两个纵向数据集中进行测试。研究 问题包括：(1)两种标准在三种情况下的分析结果是否仍相互矛盾 改变分数分析？(2)双中心ANCOVA是否复制了纯个人内的结果 差异分数分析，与预测测试后两个变化分数分析的稳健一致性平行 匹配？(3)如果标准残差分析和预测匹配继续与已知结果相矛盾 这些纠正措施的有效性，预试X处理交互作用是否通过以下方式协调差异 对风险最高的病例显示有效性？(4)时间-1混淆的识别和控制 通过类似的专注于纯粹的人内变化和群体平均中心来改进？ 我们预计这项研究将记录解释为什么所有纠正行动似乎都是有害的偏见 剩余的分析，无论是由父母实施的(纪律反应，与年轻人谈论越轨 或由专业人员(治疗、处方药、儿童保育补贴、寄养、 就业培训计划)。消除这些普遍存在的偏见有可能提高基本的 父母教养研究，以更接近有效的因果推论，这是必要的，以改善 针对高危儿童的下一代家长实施的心理治疗。

Project Summary/Abstract Most empirically supported treatments for conduct problems in children are implemented by parents, but a recent meta-analysis found them to be half as effective now as 50 years ago. Basic parenting research has failed to improve these treatments partly because of its inadequate causal validity. Of the two basic methods for analyzing longitudinal change, ANCOVA-type residualized-score analyses have been preferred for causal estimates, but they are biased by stable pre-existing differences on outcome scores, according to recent critiques. But the alternative, difference-score analysis, has less statistical power and cannot easily test crucial Pretest X Treatment interactions. This study intends to address those disadvantages by testing extensions of a promising innovation called dual-centered ANCOVA to multi-occasion data. This is a modification of Huitema’s quasi-ANCOVA that centers posttest scores (new) as well as pretest scores (quasi) around their pretest group means. Centering pretests make the two change-score results consistent with each other, whereas centering posttest scores around pretest group means then keeps all change scores unchanged. It avoids the bias in standard ANCOVA by duplicating the results of difference-score analyses, but retains ANCOVA’s advantages: more statistical power and ability to test Pretest X Treatment interactions. For “true” causal effects to compare for testing bias, this research simulates two 3-occasion datasets to fit the null hypotheses of each traditional change-score analysis. It also tests longitudinal data on corrective actions by parents or professionals shown to be effective in randomized trials. Depression treatments (medications and therapy), child hospital visits, and timeout will each be tested in two longitudinal datasets. Research questions include: (1) Do analyses across three occasions still get contradictory results from the two standard change-score analyses? (2) Does dual-centered ANCOVA duplicate the results of pure within-person difference-score analyses, parallel to the robust consistency across both change-score analyses after pretest matching? (3) If standard residualized analyses and pretest matching continue to contradict the known effectiveness of these corrective actions, do Pretest X Treatment interactions reconcile the discrepancies by showing effectiveness for the most at-risk cases? (4) Can the identification and control of Time-1 confounds be improved by similar focusing on pure within-person changes and group-mean centering? We expect this study to document biases that explain why all corrective actions appear to be harmful in residualized analyses, whether implemented by parents (disciplinary responses, talking to youth about deviant behavior and peers) or by professionals (therapy, prescription medications, child care subsidies, foster care, job training programs). Removing these pervasive biases have the potential to improve the ability of basic parenting research to approximate valid causal inferences more closely, which is necessary to improve the next generation of parent-implemented psychotherapies for at-risk children.