STATISTICAL ISSUES IN AIDS RESEARCH

本提案的目标是制定和评价 与人类研究有关的研究中使用的统计方法 免疫缺陷病毒（艾滋病毒）疾病和艾滋病流行病。 一 来自加州大学伯克利分校的合作团队， 加州大学旧金山弗朗西斯科将参与该项目。 有三个专题领域特别令人感兴趣。第一个是详细的 艾滋病预测反算方法的发展 发病率统计和艾滋病毒流行率估计， 用其他的技术。 第二个是关于评价 疫苗对控制艾滋病毒流行病的潜在影响，包括 评估必要的疫苗接种覆盖率和 免疫期、行为变化和再接种之间的关系 施政纲要而 最后，建议在以下方面开展进一步的方法学工作： 试图描述HIV疾病的自然史。 特别 感兴趣是统计技术，（一）考虑具体 艾滋病诊断，例如卡波西肉瘤和相关的时间现象， (ii)量化免疫学标志物变量的演变 疾病进展，（iii）使用标志物变量来改善 治疗试验中的数据，并将这些变量与某些结果联系起来， 如艾滋病的发病和（iv）艾滋病毒的性质的描述 传染性，强调传染性在疾病上的变化 阶段 所有方法都将应用于各种数据集， 适当

The objective of this proposal is the development and evaluation of statistical methods for use in research related to studies of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) disease and the AIDS epidemic. A collaborative team from the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of California, San Francisco, will be involved in the project. Three topic areas are of specific interest. The first relates to detailed development of the backcalculation method for projection of AIDS incidence counts and estimation of HIV prevalence, including comparison with other techniques. The second is concerned with the evaluation of the potential effects of vaccines for control of HIV epidemics, including assessment of the necessary vaccination coverage and the relationships between length of immunity, behavioral changes and revaccination policies. Finally, further methodological work is proposed related to attempts to describe the natural history of HIV disease. Of particular interest are statistical techniques that (i) consider data on specific AIDS diagnoses such as Kaposi's sarcoma and related temporal phenomena, (ii) quantify the evolution of immunological marker variables during disease progression, (iii) use marker variables to improve the use of data in therapeutic trials and relate such variables to certain outcomes, such as the onset of AIDS and (iv) the description of properties of HIV infectivity with emphasis on variation in infectiousness over disease stages. All methods will be applied to various data sets where appropriate.