Novel approach for the validation of Riskaware’s oil spill dispersion modelling capability

“2017年，Riskware为UKSA资助的一项名为EASOS(地球和海洋观测系统)的倡议做出了贡献。EASOS由卫星应用弹射器领导，旨在帮助马来西亚政府解决关键的环境问题。其中最严重的挑战之一是浮油造成的海洋污染。作为该联盟的一部分，Riskware开发了其漏油模拟能力和配套的用户界面，在EASOS项目中被称为海洋观察，并在其外部清除海洋。该模型的目的是预测和帮助可视化漏油中最可能的路径，并确定石油到达海岸的风险。根据模型提供的信息，可以规划缓解战略，例如使用围油栏和分散剂在海上拦截石油，并部署陆基沿海清理小组。该系统还具有许多强大的功能，这些功能建立在其核心模型上，包括概率集成建模和源项估计。为了使模型的预测得到依赖，重要的不仅是这些预测尽可能准确，而且还要理解模型的局限性。考虑到这一点，该项目将开发一套用于验证模型的方法和算法，提供向潜在客户传达模型准确性的指标，量化任何不确定性，并帮助在世界新地区部署模型。已经对模型进行了验证，以便为不久将在马来西亚开始的试验做准备，但仍需要一种通用和公正的方法来验证模型，这是与STFC的哈特里中心合作提供的。Hartree将利用他们作为独立第三方的角色，开发一套新的稳健和合理的方法来量化模型的性能，通过应用这些方法，他们将能够对模型进行公正和彻底的验证。根据该项目开发的新方法将有助于向客户展示模型的全部能力。这将使Riskware能够将这种能力推向市场，推动强劲的出口销售和公司增长。我们还计划与哈特里联合发表一篇论文，报告验证结果和我们开发的新方法。

"In 2017, Riskaware contributed to a UKSA funded initiative known as EASOS (Earth and Sea Observation System). EASOS was led by the Satellite Application Catapult and aimed to help the Malaysian government with key environmental issues. One of the most serious of these challenges was that of marine pollution from oil slicks. As part of the consortium Riskaware developed its oil spill modelling capability and accompanying user interface, known as Marine Watch within the EASOS project, and Clear Ocean outside of it.The purpose of the model is to predict and help visualise the most likely path of oil in a spill and to determine the risk of that oil reaching the coast. Based on the information provided by the modelling, mitigation strategies can be planned, such as intercepting the oil at sea using oil booms and dispersant, and deploying land-based coastal clean-up teams. The system also has a number of powerful capabilities which are built onto its core model including probabilistic ensemble modelling and source term estimation.In order for the model's predictions to be relied upon, it is not just important for those predictions to be as accurate as possible, but also for the limitations of the model to be understood. With this in mind, this project will develop a set of methods and algorithms for validating the model, providing metrics that convey to potential customers the accuracy of the model, quantifying any uncertainties and aiding the deployment of the model in new areas of the world.Verification has been performed on the model already in order to prepare for a trial starting in Malaysia shortly, but a universal and unbiased method for validating the model is still required and this is what working with the STFC's Hartree Centre will provide. Hartree will use their role as an independent third-party, to develop a new set of robust and justifiable methodologies for quantifying the performance of the model, and by applying these methodologies, they will be able to carry out an unbiased and thorough validation of the model.The new methods developed under the project will help demonstrate to customers the full capability of the model. This will allow Riskaware to take the capability to market, driving strong export sales and company growth. We also plan to publish a joint paper with Hartree to report the validation results and the new methods we have developed."