Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections

人为海平面上升预计将淹没世界各地的低洼岛屿和海岸线，多个模型预测表明，风型的变化将导致沿着澳大利亚东海岸和邻近小岛屿国家海平面上升幅度大于平均水平。然而，由于近几十年来观测到的海平面上升模式与模型预测的海平面上升模式之间存在很大的不匹配，因此对海平面上升空间变化预测的可信度很低。这项工作将使用新开发的气候模型层次和创新的实验设计来确定这种差异的原因，并通过澄清和减少预测的不确定性来产生更可信的区域海平面上升预测。

Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.