Catastrophic shifts: the value of knowing more about ecosystem feedbacks

生态系统以意想不到的方式对逐渐变化作出反应。环境不同部分之间的反馈过程可能使生态系统永久崩溃，导致生物多样性可能不可逆转的丧失。然而，目前还不清楚更多的反馈知识是否会最终改变环境决策。该项目旨在通过生成新的方法来预测了解更多反馈的经济效益，从而确定反馈何时对环境决策起作用。结合生态建模和信息价值理论，这些新方法的结果将通过使管理者能够做出明智的决策并在潜在的生态系统崩溃之前领先一步，提供显着而广泛的环境效益。

Ecosystems respond to gradual change in unexpected ways. Feedback processes between different parts of an environment can perpetuate ecosystem collapse, leading to potentially irreversible biodiversity loss. However, it is unclear if greater knowledge of feedbacks will ultimately change environmental decisions. The project aims to identify when feedbacks matter for environmental decisions, by generating new methods that predict the economic benefit of knowing more about feedbacks. Combining ecological modelling and value-of-information theory, the outcomes of these novel methods will provide significant and broad environmental benefits, by enabling managers to make informed decisions and stay one step ahead of potential ecosystem collapse.