Application of agent based modelling and complex systems to national and regional transport planning

ABI3L项目在TSB智能物流项目的资助下，为英国货运系统构建了一个基于agent的原型模型（使用复杂系统思维）。ABI3L代表Agent-Based Intelligent Logistics，也是一种创新和集成。该项目的目标是开发英国货运和物流的复杂系统模型，以帮助确定向低碳世界转变所需的投资和政策，同时提供经济生产力。目前，这种政策和投资选择并没有能够评估根本变化的工具，包括在区域和国家一级改变对货运的行为、政策和态度的必要性，以及这种复杂性如何相互作用。机会是模拟物流网络、运营实践、监管控制和财政措施的步骤变化，以便更好地向政策制定者和投资者提供可用选项的实际价值，提供如何改进整个系统的见解，包括模式转变、对政策的行为和经济反应以及网络关键点的容量要求。全面部署后，该模型将使公共部门规划者和私营部门行为者了解和预测影响，降低风险并集中投资。

Project ABI3L has constructed a prototype Agent-based model (using complex systems thinking) of the UK freight transport system under the TSB Intelligent Logistics call for funding. ABI3L stands for Agent-Based Intelligent Logistics which is also Innovative and Integrating. The goal of the project has been to develop complex systems models of UK freight and logistics to help to determine the investments and policies that will be needed to move to a low carbon world whilst also delivering economic productivity. At present such policy and investment choices are not supported by tools that can evaluate radical change, including the need to change behaviours, policies and attitudes to freight at both a regional and national level and how the complexity interacts.The opportunity is to model step changes in logistics networks, operating practices, regulatory control and fiscal measures to better inform both policy makers and investors on the real value of the options available, providing insights into how the total system can be improved, covering modal shift, behavioural and economic responses to policies and the requirement for capacity at key points in the network. Fully deployed, the modelling will allow both public sector planners and private sector actors to understand and forecast impacts, reduce risk and focus investment.