A spatial extremes framework for predicting subdaily rainfall intensity

气候变化正在导致全球极端降雨强度增加。最大的增加发生在持续数小时的短时间风暴中，这增加了山洪暴发的风险，由于它们的迅速发生，往往极其危险。该项目旨在开发一个新的空间极值框架来预测极端降雨模式，利用对降雨触发机制（如对流、锋面或地形）未来变化的见解。该研究旨在以强度-频率-持续时间曲线、面积缩减因子和前雨深度的形式提供预测。工程师们应该利用这些信息来设计基础设施和城市规划政策，以适应未来的洪水风险。

Climate change is causing extreme rainfall intensity to increase globally. The greatest increases occur for short-duration storms lasting up to several hours, bringing a heightened risk of flash-floods that are often extremely hazardous due to their rapid onset. The project aims to develop a new spatial extreme value framework to predict extreme rainfall patterns, using insights on future changes to rainfall triggering mechanisms (e.g. convective, frontal or orographic). The research aims to provide projections in the form of intensity-frequency-duration curves, areal reduction factors and antecedent rainfall depths. Engineers are expected to use this information to design infrastructure and urban planning policies to adapt to future flood risk.