LONG RANGE POPULATION PROJECTION BY DISABILITY STATUS II

这是一个建议，构建一个个人计算机软件包， 将以人口水平的形式进行长期人口预测。 文件. 这套资料将包括每个国家的基年人口， 它还将提供违约预测， 接近联邦机构的预测，或允许分析师 替代定制的替代品。 该软件包旨在提供 技术分析师的工具，准备多个预测的状态或 投资时间和费用不多的地区。 个人级别的文件将包括一个非制度化的，非 残疾人口、非机构化残疾人口和 长期医疗护理设施中的人口。 这将是组装 通过统计匹配公共使用文件。 这些文件将包括 人口的经济和人口特征， 强调对长期护理服务的需求和筹资能力 这些服务通过个人资源或公共资金提供。 模型 将作为一种更简单（且不那么雄心勃勃）的替代方案， 产品. 软件附带的手册将提供详细的指南， 根据公布的数据编写历史研究报告， 人口经济预测 建议的商业应用：该投影软件将 面向从事人口统计学应用的专业人士， 保险公司，州医疗补助机构，长期护理提供者， 和顾问。 预计随附的手册将有更广泛的 包括研究人员和学生在内的独立受众。

This is a proposal to construct a personal computer software package that would produce long range population forecasts in the form of person level files. The package would include base year populations for each of the states and the U.S. It would also provide default projections tied closely to the forecasts of federal agencies, or allow the analyst to substitute customized alternatives. The package is intended to provide the technical analyst a tool to prepare multiple forecasts of a state or region with modest investment of time and expense. The person level files would consist of a non institutionalized, non disabled population, a non institutionalized disabled population and a population in long term medical care facilities. This would be assembled by statistically matching public use files. The files would include economic and demographic characteristics of the population with an emphasis on demand for long term care services and the capacity to finance these services through personal resources or public financing. The model would compete as a simpler (and less ambitious) alternative to existing products. The manual to accompany the software would provide a detailed guide for preparing historical studies from published data to implement a demographic-economic forecast. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: This projection software would be marketed to professionals working in demographic applications including insurance companies, state Medicaid agencies, long term care providers, and consultants. The accompanying handbook is expected to have a wider independent audience including researchers and students.