HOUSEHOLD RESPONSES TO ECONOMIC SHOCKS IN BRAZIL

该项目将分析家庭对短期和长期的反应， 巴西家庭经济状况的长期变化。 的 该项目将重点关注劳动力参与的变化， 妇女和儿童以及儿童的入学率。 该项目的动机是关注社会影响， 许多发展中国家经历的宏观经济波动 近几十年来，国。 巴西经历了动荡的经济 从1976年到1995年的周期，这一时期存在着良好的 家庭调查数据。 这些数据使我们有可能测试 家庭经济状况的恶化是否会产生 降低了孩子们的升学率。 该项目将使用 两个特殊的数据集-全国住户抽样调查年度住户调查 从1976年到1993年，PME每月就业调查从 从1982年到1995年。 这些调查提供了2000多万人的数据， 从1976年到2000年， 1995. 该项目将使用PME和PNAD记录短期 工资、就业和教育的长期趋势 成人和儿童。 该项目将利用纵向 PME的结构，以分析工资的短期波动， 将工资不平等分解为持久性和暂时性 件. PME数据还将用于分析劳动力 为妇女和儿童争取过渡。 回归与 使用进入劳动力市场和儿童入学的面板数据 作为因变量，随着丈夫的变化， 收入和就业状况作为自变量， 表明就业和教育对短期的敏感性， 经济冲击。 经济冲击与变量的相互作用 例如丈夫的教育程度，将表明对 经济冲击对贫困家庭更为严重。 的 项目还将研究长期变化的影响，例如 成人教育的改善、就业趋势以及 1976年至1995年期间，儿童入学率。 这些预测 影响将与短期预测的影响进行比较， 经济混乱，提供证据， 短期和长期经济变化对变革重要性 在这段时间里的教育和就业。

This project will analyze household responses to short-run and long-run changes in household economic conditions in Brazil. The project will focus on changes in the labor force participation of women and children and on the schooling attainment of children. The project is motivated by the concern over social effects of macroeconomic fluctuations experienced by many developing countries in recent decades. Brazil experienced volatile economic cycles from 1976 to 1995, a period for which there exist excellent household survey data. These data make it possible to test whether worsening household economic conditions had effects such as decreasing children's school advancement. The project will use two exceptional data sets--the PNAD annual household surveys from 1976 to 1993, and the PME monthly employment survey from 1982 to 1995. These surveys provide data on over 20 million individuals over the tumultuous economic period from 1976 to 1995. The project will use the PME and PNAD to document short-run and long-run trends in wages, employment, and schooling for adults and children. The project will exploit the longitudinal structure of the PME to analyze short-run volatility in wages and decompose wage inequality into persistent and transitory components. The PME data will also be used to analyze labor force transitions for women and children. Regressions with the panel data using entry into the labor force and children's school advancement as dependent variables, with changes in husband's income and employment status as independent variables, will indicate the sensitivity of employment and schooling to short-run economic shocks. Interactions of economic shocks with variables such as husband's eduction will indicate whether responses to economic shocks are more extreme for poor households. The project will also look at the effects of long-run changes, such as improvements in adult schooling, on trends in employment and children's schooling during the 1976-95 period. These predicted effects will be compared with the predicted effects of short-run economic dislocations, providing evidence on the relative importance of short-run and long-run economic change on changes in schooling and employment over this period.