MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

历史记录表明，世界人口是 早该出现新一轮流感大流行了。在准备过程中可以做些什么 为了这次活动吗？最重要的是了解 将要发生的分子流行病学事件并对此负责 大流行病毒的起源。然后，可以利用这些知识来 动员预防措施。目前的策略将使用疫苗和 抗病毒技术，充其量只会削弱 世界上几个地区的大流行。这样做的长期目标是 建议是产生知识，可用于准备和 防止出现大流行性流感病毒。 在目前的授权期内，我们确定亚洲/57和 香港/68人类大流行病毒通过重组出现在 欧亚(欧洲/亚洲)禽流感病毒谱系和 人类。这些数据进一步支持了猪是 “重组船”和大流行病毒起源于中国。 我们目前的发现表明，禽流感病毒最近 在欧洲传播到猪和含有人和禽类的重组体 在荷兰，已经从人类身上分离出流感基因片段。 具有重大潜在意义的是最近发现的禽流感 猪中的病毒来自中国。我们的具体目标将决定：1)猪是一种 人类大流行病毒发生的危险因素？2)禽类 中国中的猪流感病毒成为下一个人类的前体 大流行？3)确定哪些分子变化与 禽流感病毒向哺乳动物宿主的传播和利用 这些信息用于开发用于检测它们的流行病学探针。 核苷酸序列信息和分子探针的可用性 为流感病毒的不同谱系提供了独特的 有机会阐明在新的 大流行性流感病毒，并可确立适用于其他 新出现的传染病。

Historical records suggest that the human population of the world is overdue for a new pandemic of influenza. What can be done in preparation for this event? Most important is to gain an understanding of the molecular epidemiological events that will occur and are responsible for the origin of pandemic virus. This knowledge can then be utilized to mobilize preventive measures. Current strategies would use vaccine and antiviral technologies and would at best only blunt the impact of the pandemic in a few regions of the world. The long term objective of this proposal is to generate knowledge that may be used to prepare for and prevent the appearance of pandemic influenza viruses. During the present granting period we established that the Asian/57 and Hong Kong/68 human pandemic viruses emerged by reassortment between the Eurasian (Europe/Asia) lineage of avian influenza viruses and those in humans. The data further support the notion that pigs are the "reassortment vessel" and that the pandemic viruses originated in China. Our current findings indicate that avian influenza viruses have recently spread to pigs in Europe and reassortants containing human and avian influenza gene segments have been isolated from humans in The Netherlands. Of great potential significance is the recent detection of avian influenza virus in pigs from China. Our specific aims will determine: 1) Are pigs a risk factor in the genesis of human pandemic viruses? 2) Will the avian influenza viruses in pigs in China become the precursors of the next human pandemic? 3) Establish what molecular changes are associated with transmission of avian influenza viruses to mammalian hosts and utilize this information to develop epidemiological probes for their detection. The availability of nucleotide sequence information and molecular probes to the different lineages of influenza viruses provide a unique opportunity to elucidate the events that occur during emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus and may establish principles that apply to other emerging infectious diseases.