Development of new web-based scenario analysis tool to help international trading businesses plan through the COVID pandemic

2019冠状病毒病危机影响了全球几乎每个角落的数百万人。加上对公共卫生的影响，COVID大流行对英国乃至世界各地的企业产生了不利影响。封锁和社会隔离措施对英国经济造成了巨大打击。英国和欧洲（实际上是世界各地）的公司迫切需要新的工具来帮助预测和规划一个新的、不确定的后COVID世界——实际上，我们需要的是一个交互式在线规划工具，它将复杂的流行病建模与特定行业的财务和运营参数结合起来，以模拟可能的全球供应链中断、COVID对世界各地不同国家市场的影响、或者迫在眉睫的人力资源相关问题。AquAffirm打算在这个项目中开发这样一个在线工具，利用其最近与世界领先的学术流行病学小组之一（帝国理工学院的MRC GIDA）的合作，该合作最近产生了世界领先的COVID-19情景分析工具（**covidsim.org**）。covid - sim针对全球135个低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）进行独特的每日校准，为全球卫生部门提供与疫情关键方面相关的决策支持。covid - 19的全球影响及其针对中低收入国家的具体目标确保了平等和包容；我们打算新的门户网站（暂定名为COVID-LIVE及其仅限订阅的姊妹网站COVID-LIVE- pro）也做同样的事情，其免费访问部分支持全球场景规划，仅限订阅的部分提供高级商业智能功能。我们还将通过帮助企业提高效率来减少英国的碳足迹。

The COVID-19 crisis has impacted millions of people in almost every corner of the globe.Together with its impact on public health, the COVID pandemic has detrimentally affected businesses around the UK and indeed around the world. Lockdowns and social-distancing measures resulted in large hits to the British economy.Companies around the UK and Europe (and, indeed, around the world) desperately require new tools to help predict and plan in a new and uncertain post-COVID world -- indeed, what is needed is an interactive online planning tool which brings together sophisticated epidemic modelling with industry-specific financial and operational parameters to enable simulations of things such as likely global supply-chain disruptions, COVID impacts on markets in different countries around the world, or impending human resource-related issues.AquAffirm intends to develop just such an online tool in this project, drawing upon its recent collaboration with one of the world's leading academic epidemiology groups (MRC GIDA at Imperial College), a collaboration which recently produced the world's leading COVID-19 scenario analysis tool (**covidsim.org**). Uniquely calibrated on a daily basis for 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) around the world, covidsim provides decision support associated with key aspects of the epidemic to healthcare ministries globally. The global reach of covidsim and its specific targeting of LMICs ensures equality and inclusion; we intend the new web portal (tentatively titled COVID-LIVE and its subscription only sister, COVID-LIVE-PRO) to do the same, with its free-to-access part enabling global scenario planning and its subscription-only part providing advanced business intelligence features.We will also reduce UK carbon footprint by helping to make businesses more efficient.