Understanding the sources of secular stagnation

这个项目旨在研究为什么许多经济体近年来对产出、通胀和利率的长期预测变得更低，从而导致了一种通常被称为长期停滞的现象。该项目旨在开发新的计量经济学工具，以解释结构性中断和随机趋势的来源，以便量化生产率增长、金融冲击、人口结构和通胀预期在推动长期停滞中的作用。预期成果包括有助于指导应对停滞的宏观经济政策的研究结果，以及支持今后对宏观经济变量行为变化进行应用研究的新计量经济学工具。

This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.