FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub: MACSUR-Partner 154

FACCE MACSUR的重点是模拟欧洲农业与气候变化的粮食安全。这项工作分为作物、牲畜和贸易建模三个主题。该伙伴关系由来自欧洲16个国家的73个合作伙伴组成。MACSUR2的核心科学活动将延续MACSUR1，将根据选定的全球社会经济和气候核心情景，保持气候对农业和粮食安全影响的最新结果，直至2050年。这些结果将作为进一步的社会经济或气候假设情景、次国家尺度模型以及评估MACSUR内各小组和外部各小组具体适应或减缓备选方案的参考点。这可能部分是因为极端气候和农业食品系统之间的相互作用是复杂的，对短期天气变化对整个社会的意义的理解仍然有限。这些影响将取决于（一）气候变异和极端事件对初级生产的影响，无论是作物还是牲畜，以及（二）人类行为者和粮食系统通过适应当前和未来的气候风险作出反应的方式。粮食系统具有一定程度的复原力：它能够在合理的时间内恢复并满足社会需求。然而，目前对这种调整的能力知之甚少。阅读大学将建设能力和了解对极端事件进行影响评估的方法。我们将开发一些有意义的场景，可以说明食品系统对事件的反应方式。这将有助于告知需要建模以提高我们的理解。

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The core scientific activity of MACSUR2 continuing from MACSUR1, will be to maintain up-to-date results on climate impacts on agriculture and food security in line with selected core global socio-economic and climate scenarios until 2050. These results will serve as point of reference for additional socioeconomic or climate scenarios, models at sub-national scales, and assessing specific adaptation or mitigation options by groups within MACSUR but also by external groups.There is little effort directed at modelling the impacts of extreme weather events on the agrifood system. This may in part be because the interactions between climate extremes and the agrifood system are complex and understanding the significance of short term weather variability for society as a whole is still limited. The impacts will depend on (i) the effects of climate variability and extremes on primary production, be that crop or livestock, and (ii) on the way human actors and the food system respond by adapting to current and future climate risks. The food system has a degree of resilience: it is able to recover and deliver the demands of society within a reasonable period of time. The capacity for such adjustment is at present poorly understood however. The University of Reading will build capacity and understanding of approaches to conduct impact assessments for extreme events. We will be to develop a number of meaningful scenarios which can illustrate the way in which the food system will respond to an event. This will help to inform where modelling is needed to improve our understanding.