Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

该项目旨在提高对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的认识，这是世界上最大的气候变异源。ENSO的影响是如此之大，以至于对其当前阶段的了解和对其未来阶段的预测是全球季节性降雨、温度和热带气旋预测的基础。在澳大利亚，ENSO循环导致干旱和洪水。利用一套经验观测和数值模型分析ENSO事件的前兆、启动和可预测性，该项目旨在提高季节间气候预测的技能，并帮助那些依赖准确预测的部门。

This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.