Arable: Modelling the impact of cabbage stem flea beetle on oilseed rape crops

用于生产食用植物油、生物柴油和动物饲料的油菜，直到最近一直是英国第三大最有价值的作物和主要的油料作物。然而，来自作物害虫白菜跳茎甲虫（CSFB）的压力导致了产量和利润的巨大损失。此外，由于乌克兰战争，从乌克兰和俄罗斯（世界上两个最大的出口国）进口的食用油处于历史最低水平（https：//www.economist.com/business/2022/05/07/the-war-in-ukraine-is-rocking-the-market-for-edible-oils）。因此，开始恢复英国油菜作物产量的措施是最及时的。该建议的重点是通过开发一个模型来预测害虫的发生和丰度，从而在作物最脆弱的时候采取预防措施来保护作物，从而减轻CSFB的破坏性影响。CSFB具有几个生命阶段，例如卵、幼虫、蛹、成虫，其以不同的方式影响作物。例如，成虫在秋季吃新种植的作物，而幼虫则钻入叶茎，在冬季和次年春天对植物造成损害。此外，生命阶段的时间取决于当地的天气条件。已知空气温度会影响发育速率-例如卵孵化所需的时间，幼虫成熟到成年等，风速和温度会影响成虫迁移到新作物的能力。我们的模型是基于过程的，这意味着当我们运行模型时，它会随着时间的推移而前进，并及时告诉我们害虫当前的生命阶段和丰度。目前，我们只有一个简单的CSFB生命周期原型模型，其中不包含当地天气如何影响害虫物候的信息。这项提议的一个方面是将天气依赖性编码到模型中，这样我们就可以预测每年的变化以及气候变化对油菜虫害的影响。该提案的另一个方面是整理CSFB目前可用的所有数据，并使用这些数据来构建或验证我们的新模型。长期目标是我们的模型将发展成为一个决策支持系统（DSS），可用于农民和农学家的作物管理。为此，知识转移是我们项目的关键组成部分。将成立一个利益相关者小组，在项目周期内至少举行两次会议;一次在项目开始时，一次在项目后半期。利益相关者小组将由行业合作伙伴、巴斯夫和Frontier以及其他相关方的代表组成。这些利益相关者代表了重要的行业参与者，他们在开发和使用DSS进行害虫管理方面具有影响力。第一次研讨会将使利益攸关方能够从早期阶段影响模型的设计;第二次研讨会将使利益攸关方能够在模型的开发过程中试用该模型，从而告知如何进一步开发该模型，使其适用于真实的情况。通过ADAS，该模型将与参加ADAS农业协会会议的种植者和顾问进行社交。英格兰各地有几个ADAS农业协会，其成员由当地农民和农学家组成。因此，这些活动是一个理想的机会，可以从那些直接处理CSFB问题的人那里获得反馈。因此，该提案结合了行业合作伙伴（巴斯夫和Frontier），具有CSFB及其化学和非化学控制（HAU和ADAS）知识的生物学家沿着数学建模人员和统计学家（BioSS），以提供一种完全跨学科的方法，通过减轻CSFB来恢复油菜产量。

Oilseed rape, grown for the production of edible vegetable oil, biodiesel and animal feed, was until recently the UK's third most valuable crop and its principal oil crop. However, pressure from the crop pest, cabbage flea stem beetle (CSFB), has resulted in large losses in yield and profits. Furthermore, as a consequence of the war in the Ukraine, imports of edible oils from the Ukraine and Russia (the world's two biggest exporters) are at an all-time low (https://www.economist.com/business/2022/05/07/the-war-in-ukraine-is-rocking-the-market-for-edible-oils). Thus, it has never been more timely to begin measures to restore yields of oilseed rape crops in the UK.This proposal focuses on mitigating the damaging effects of the CSFB by developing a model to predict the occurrence and abundance of the pest so that prevention measures can be taken to protect the crop when it is most vulnerable. The CSFB has several life stages, e.g. egg, larvae, pupae, adult, which affect the crop in different ways. For example, the adults eat the newly planted crops in Autumn, whereas larvae burrow into the leaf stems causing damage to plants over winter and into the following spring. Furthermore, the timing of the life stages depends on local weather conditions. Air temperature is known to affect the developmental rates - e.g. the time taken for the eggs to hatch, the larvae to mature to adulthood etc, and wind speed and temperature affect the ability of the adults to migrate to new crops. Our model is process-based, meaning that when we run the model it steps forward through time and tells us the current life stage and abundance of the pest at every moment in time. Currently we only have a simple prototype model of the CSFB life cycle which does not contain information on how local weather affects the pest phenology. One aspect of this proposal is to code weather dependency into the model so that we can predict year-to-year variability and the effects of climate change on pest damage to oilseed rape. Another aspect of the proposal is collating all data currently available for CSFB and using this for building or validating our new model. The long-term aim is that our model will be developed into a decision support system (DSS) that can be used by farmers and agronomists for crop management. To this end, knowledge transfer is a key component of our project. A stakeholder group will be formed and will meet at least twice during the lifetime of the project; once at the start of the project and once in the second half of the project. The stakeholder group will be made up of representatives from the industry partners, BASF and Frontier and other interested parties. These stakeholders represent important industry actors that are influential in the development and use of DSS for pest management. The initial workshop will enable stakeholders to influence the design of the model from an early stage; the second workshop will allow stakeholders to trial the model in its development and hence inform on how the model can be further developed be applicable in real situations. Via ADAS, the model will be socialised with growers and advisors attending ADAS Farming Association conferences. There are several ADAS Farming Associations across England, and their membership consists of local farmers and agronomists. As such, these events represent an ideal opportunity to receive feedback from those tackling the issue of CSFB first-hand. Thus, this proposal combines industry partners (BASF and Frontier), biologists with knowledge of CSFB and its chemical and non-chemical control (HAU and ADAS) along with mathematical modellers and statisticians (BioSS) to provide a fully inter-disciplinary approach to restoring yields of oilseed rape through mitigation of the CSFB.