Assessing the risk of mosquito vector-borne diseases in Scotland and their response to environmental change

蚊子是全球最重要的病媒传播疾病（VBD）来源，因为它们在传播疟疾和登革热等人类高负担疾病方面发挥着重要作用。它们还负责将病原体从野生动物和牲畜传播给人类（“人畜共患疾病”）。虽然蚊子VBD的负担在热带地区最高，但气候和其他环境变化正在推动蚊子及其病原体向包括英国在内的欧洲温带地区扩张。鸟类可能是欧洲新出现的蚊子VBD的最重要来源（例如西尼罗河病毒（WNV）和西尼罗河病毒（USUV）），并有可能在迁移过程中将病原体引入英国。然而，在英国，检测和应对蚊子VBD出现的能力受到国家监测方面的重大差距的阻碍。目前的监测几乎完全限于英格兰和威尔士;几乎完全没有来自苏格兰的数据。鉴于苏格兰占英国陆地面积的近三分之一，这一差距在国家VBD检测和响应战略中造成了重大漏洞。我们建议通过对苏格兰各地的蚊子和鸟类种群进行全面调查，并评估它们在当前和未来环境条件下传播VBD的潜力来解决这个问题。首先，我们将在苏格兰各地的一系列湿地栖息地进行蚊子诱捕，以表征潜在病媒物种的分布、丰度和生态。我们还将在一系列城市和农村环境中收集蚊子，以评估哪些潜在的病媒物种最有可能出现在人和鸟类种群重叠的地方。第二，我们将在收集蚊子的地区从野鸟身上采集血液样本，以检测病原体。鸟类血液和蚊子样本将使用一种新的分子方法进行分析，该方法可以在一次测试中检测多达80种不同病原体的存在。我们将检测样本中的一系列VBDs，包括在英格兰和欧洲其他地区报告的人畜共患病病原体（例如，WNV、USUV、辛德毕斯病毒、西方马脑炎病毒、Tahyna病毒）、兽医病原体（禽痘和禽疟疾）和人类病原体（例如，登革热、疟疾、基孔肯雅病毒）。第三，我们将从苏格兰各地收集欧洲最重要的蚊媒物种之一尖音库蚊，并在受控实验室条件下进行的实验感染研究中评估其传播病毒的能力。最后，我们将利用上述收集的数据开发模型，预测在当前和未来的气候条件下，苏格兰最有可能发现潜在的蚊子病媒物种及其病原体。这些模型将被用来预测西尼罗河病毒和其他人畜共患病的VBD成为建立在整个英国在当前或未来的条件下的可能性。结合起来，这项研究将大大提高国家能力，以了解和减轻整个英国的VBDs所构成的日益增长的威胁。该项目还将有助于在学术界和政府之间建立一个网络和知识交流。这将为未来在苏格兰内外开展“一个健康研究”和病媒传播疾病研究方面的合作奠定坚实的基础。

Mosquitoes are the most important source of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) globally on account of their role in transmitting high burden human diseases like malaria and dengue. They are also responsible for the spread of pathogens from wildlife and livestock to humans ("zoonotic diseases"). While the burden of mosquito VBDs is highest in tropical areas, climate and other environmental changes are driving the expansion of mosquitoes and their pathogens into temperate regions of Europe including the UK. Birds are probably the most important source of emerging mosquito VBDs in Europe (e.g West Nile (WNV) and Usutu viruses (USUV),and have potential to introduce pathogens into the UK during migration. Ability to detect and respond to mosquito VBD emergence in the UK is however hampered by major gaps in national surveillance. Current surveillance is restricted almost entirely to England and Wales; with a near complete absence of data from Scotland. Given Scotland constitutes almost a third of the UK land mass, this gap creates a major vulnerability in national VBD detection and response strategy. We propose to address this here by conducting a comprehensive investigation of mosquitoes and bird populations across Scotland, and assessing their potential for VBD transmission under current and future environmental conditions. First we will conduct mosquito trapping in a range of wetland habitats across Scotland to characterize the distribution, abundance and ecology of potential vector species. We will also collect mosquitoes in a range of urban and rural settings to assess what potential vector species are most likely to be present where people and bird populations overlap. Second, we will take blood samples from wild birds in areas where mosquitoes are being collected to test for pathogens. Bird blood and mosquito samples will be analyzed using a novel molecular method that can test for the presence of up to 80 different pathogens in a single test. We will test samples for a range of VBDs including zoonotic pathogens that have been reported in England and other parts of Europe (e.g., WNV, USUV, Sindbis virus, Western Equine Encephalitis virus, Tahyna Virus), veterinary (avian Pox and avian malaria) and human pathogens (e.g., dengue, malaria, chikungunya virus). Third, we will collect Culex pipiens, one of the most important mosquito vector species in Europe, from sites across Scotland and assess their ability to transmit viruses in experimental infection studies conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. Finally, we will use the data collected above to develop models that predict where potential mosquito vector species and their pathogens are most likely to be found in Scotland under current and future climatic conditions. These models will be used to predict the likelihood of WNV and other zoonotic VBDs becoming established throughout the UK under current or future conditions. In combination, this research will considerably enhance national capacity to understand and mitigate the growing threats posed by VBDs throughout the UK. The project will also enable the establishment of a network and knowledge exchange between academia and government. This will provide a solid foundation for future collaboration on One Health Research and vector-borne disease research within and beyond Scotland.