DYNAMIC MIGRATION MODELS APPLIED TO US LONGITUDINAL DATA

我们的目标是开发、形式化和测试动态 迁徙的行为模式。我们建议将 移徙决策过程分为三个阶段：(A) 决定搜索r个替代地点；(B)搜索 备选地点的选择和评价；和(C) 最后的决定是搬家。在决策的每个阶段 过程中，个人评估其预期的成本和收益 在采取行动之前。这些成本和收益(它们可能是 货币或非货币)取决于 个人，他目前所在位置的特征，以及 他所在的另一个地点的特点 正在评估。由于这些相关特征发生了变化 随着时间的推移，移民决策过程是一个动态的过程 进程。 决策过程的各个阶段是看不到的。 然而，这一过程的结果和特点 决定组成要素的个人和地点 这一过程的每个阶段的组成部分都是可见的。这些 零碎的信息让我们得出了移民的模型 可以使用纵向测试来估计和测试的行为 数据。 假设将使用两组主要数据进行检验： 收入动态的面板研究(PSID)与全国 青年纵向调查(NLSY)。这些数据包含广泛的 有关个人的各种纵向信息 移民、教育、婚姻状况、就业、生育率 还有怀孕。因此，这些数据让我们不仅检查了 背景特征对迁徙的影响，以及 迁移与其他国家的行为之间的动态关联 生活领域，如婚姻、生育、育儿、 学校教育和就业。这两个数据集还包括 关于居住人数的信息，这允许我们 用信息补充各个属性的数据 从美国收集的数据看县域特征。 人口普查局和其他政府机构。

Our purpose is to develop, formalize, and test a dynamic behavioral model of migration. We propose to breakdown the migration decision-making process into three phases: (a) the decision to search ofr alternative locations; (b) the search for and the evaluation of the alternative locations; and (c) the final decison to move. At each phase of the decison-making process, an individual evaluates his expected costs and benfits before taking action. These costs and benefits (they may be monetary or nonmonetary) depend on the characteristics of the individual, the characteristics of his current location, and the characteristics of the alternative location that he is evaluating. Since these relevant characteristics change over time, the migration decision-making process is a dynamic process. The phases of the decison-making process are unobservable. However, the outcome of this process and the characteristics of the individuals and locations that determine the constituent components of each phase of the process are observable. These pieces of information let us derive a model of migration behavior that can be estimated and tested using longitudinal data. Hypotheses will be tested using two principal sets of data: the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). These data contain a wide variety of longitudinal information on individuals pertaining to migration, schooling, marital status, employment, fertility and pregnancy. Thus, these data let us examine not only the effects of background characteristics on migration but also the dynamic associations between migration and behavior in other life domains, such as marriage, child-bearing, child-rearing, schooling, and employment. Both data sets also include information on count of residence, which permits us to supplement the data on individual attributes with information on characteristics of counties using data collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and other governmental agencies.