EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY LEVEL FACTORS ON FERTILITY

我们的目标是：(1)建立一个完整的决定因素的概念模型 生育率，其中包括社区层面的因素。这款车 对家庭对儿童的需求的经济模型进行了扩展 明确包括更广泛的个人和家庭变量， 以及社区因素。而最终因变量为 近期生育率、生育需求的决定因素和生育率的使用 监管部门也将对此进行调查。(2)发展概念性观点 环境影响生育率的过程，由此产生 从理论模型出发。(3)制定适当的程序 对模型及其关键组件进行评估。高级计量经济学 程序将用于估计个人、家庭和社区 决定因素。将仔细考虑变量是否 应被视为外生性或内生性(基于理论 模型)、适当的时间关系以及关于 错误结构。(4)对两个发展中国家的模型进行估算 使用异常丰富的数据集。建议的国家和地区是 菲律宾和墨西哥的比科尔地区。这些数据将允许测试 更现实、更复杂的家庭决策模式，涉及 开发和测试更好的从属和独立测量 变量。(5)将使用模拟来帮助精确定位以下区域 数据缺失很可能会导致模型的错误说明和偏差 参数估计，并进行策略和行为模拟 使用两个国家的估计参数，从而帮助确定 未来的数据收集需求。 该项目的实施应导致对其价值的认识 一套完整的家庭生育决策理论 指定关于社区层面的因素如何影响的假设 生育能力。这将允许更多有效的政策推断--一个主要的 长期目标。同样，确定所需数据的区域 收藏直接关系到参与的另一个主要目标 未来调查发展中的调查问卷和调查/样本设计 在填补这方面的差距方面，我国需要取得进展。

Our aims are: (1) Develop a complete conceptual model of the determinants of fertility which incorporates community level factors. This model expands upon the economic model of household demand for children by explicitly including a broader range of individual and household variables, as well as community factors. While the ultimate dependent variable is recent fertility, determinants of demand for children and use of fertility regulation will also be investigates. (2) Develop a conceptual view of the processes by which the environment influences fertility, which arises from the theoretical model. (3) Develop appropriate procedures for estimating the model and its key components. Advanced econometric procedures will be used to estimate individual, household and community determinants. Careful consideration will be given to whether variables should be considered exogenous or endogenous (based on the theoretical model), to appropriate temporal relationships, and to assumptions about the error structure. (4) Estimate the model for two developing countries using unusually rich data sets. The countries and regions proposed are the Bicol region of the Philippines and Mexico. The data will permit testing a more realistic and complex model of household decision making, involving developing and testing better measures of the dependent and independent variables. (5) Simulation will be used to help pinpoint areas where missing data are likely to lead to model misspecification and biased estimates of parameters and to conduct policy and behavioral simulations using estimated parameters for the two countries, thereby helping identify future data collection needs. Implementation of the project should lead to an appreciation of the value of a complete theory of household fertility decision making for clearly specifying hypotheses about how community-level factors influence fertility. This will permit more valid policy inferences -- a major long-term objective. Similarly, identifying areas of needed data collection relates directly to another major objective to participate in questionnaire and survey/sample design in a future survey developing country to progress towards filling the gaps.