DEMOGRAPHIC RESPONSES TO A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

这个拟议的项目是我们先前项目的延续和扩展。 项目，“不断变化的环境中的避孕选择”。它的整体 目标是更好地理解人口统计对戏剧性的反应 社会变革。泰国南荣区是一个理想的天然 实验室研究由社会问题引发的人口统计反应 许多社会正在发生变化。 以1984年和1988年收集的数据为基础(这是 先前项目中的分析)，我们提出了另一轮数据 在1984年和1988年调查的村庄中1994年收集的数据和 对移民到Nakornratchisima布里拉姆(县城)的后续行动(a 地区城市)和曼谷(国家首府)。生成的数据 SET将包括三波观测(1984,1988,1994)，多次 观察级别(个人、共同居住家庭、家庭、 (社区)，追踪移民至三个主要目的地； 移民和非移民的追溯事件历史数据。建房 根据我们之前的工作，社交网络数据将在 社区、家庭和个人层面。 利用这些数据，我们建议分析两种可能的社会反应 和经济变化：避孕选择、迁出和延迟 为人父母。拟议的分析将是多层次的，重点是 在个人、家庭和社区层面上的变化，并采取 解释了这些水平上未观察到的异质性，以及 社会行为在其中发生的网络的性质。除了……之外 这些多变量分析，我们将从方法论和 描述性分析，特别是(A)顺序、多样性和清晰度 生活进程的转变和(B)村与村之间、户与户之间、 和南荣区的人际关系网。

The proposed project is a continuation and expansion of our earlier project, "Contraceptive Choice in a Changing Environment." Its overall goal is an improved understanding of demographic responses to dramatic social change. Nang Rong district, Thailand is an ideal natural laboratory to examine the demographic responses triggered by the social changes underway in many societies. Building on data assembled for 1984 and 1988 (that are the focus of analysis in the earlier project), we propose an additional round of data collection in 1994 in the villages surveyed in 1984 and 1988 and a follow-up of migrants to Buriram (a county seat), Nakornratchisima (a regional city), and Bangkok (the national capital). The resulting data set will include three waves of observation (1984, 1988, 1994), multiple levels of observation (individuals, co-resident families, households, communities), tracking of migrants to three principal destinations, and retrospective event history data for migrants and non-migrants. Building upon our earlier work, social network data will incorporated at the community, household and individual level. Using these data, we propose to analyze two possible responses to social and economic change: contraceptive choice and out-migration and delayed parenthood. The proposed analyses will be multilevel in thrust, focus on change at the individual, household, and community levels, and take account of unobserved heterogeneity at each of these levels and the nature of networks within which social behavior occurs. In addition to these multivariate analyses, we will begin with methodological and descriptive analyses, particularly (a) the order, diversity and crispness of life course transitions and (b) the inter-village, inter-household, and interpersonal networks in Nang Rong district.