Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty

本项目旨在构建基于模型的通货膨胀预期和通货膨胀预期不确定性度量。通胀预期可以决定经济结果。该项目将开发非线性时变模型，以便将来自调查和金融市场的噪声和可能有偏见的通货膨胀预期措施的信息联合收割机结合起来。预计这些基于模型的措施将得到更好的校准，并为决策者制定宏观经济政策提供宝贵的信息。它们可以用来更好地评估货币政策的可信度，并揭示发达经济体低通胀率的原因。

This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.