DEMOGRAPHY OF LOCAL MARRIAGE MARKETS

《本地婚姻市场人口统计》是一个完全修订的版本 1989年1月首次提交研究科的一项提案。这个 主要目的是检验基于空间的婚姻市场的影响。 第一次婚姻过渡的男女模式的条件和 美国的同类交配。一个指导性的假设是 当地婚姻市场的机会和限制影响(1)程度 和结婚的时机；以及(2)婚姻伴侣的选择。 选择最适合分析当地情况的地理尺度 婚姻市场是经验性的。因此，第一个目标是 评估婚姻市场领域的几种替代定义。我们 使用1980年PLUMS-D文件中确定的劳动力市场来定义这些领域， 1988年地区资源中提供的县、县和多县单位 档案。婚姻市场状况的指标，如当地经济状况 然后，机会和配偶的可获得性被包括在生态 当地比例的模特永远都会结婚。本分析针对的是 前人研究的基本局限，即隐含的假设 婚姻市场的范围是全国性的，而不是地方性的。 第二个目标是拟合男性和男性的半参数风险模型。 女性过渡到第一次婚姻。具体地说，当地的婚姻市场 指标首次与个人婚姻历史合并 1979-1988年全国青年纵向调查波动率数据 (NLSY)。这些新合并的数据提供了构建True 婚姻状态转变的“情境”模型。据我们所知，没有 另一项研究将当地婚姻市场指标纳入了行为 向第一次婚姻过渡的典范。 最后，第三个目标是检查当地的影响 婚姻市场条件对各种交配模式的影响。 婚姻市场指标与已婚夫妇的记录有关 PumS-D，以评估它们对组内和组外模式的影响 婚姻。我们讨论了各种对数线性模型，特别是 适用于确定交叉分类中的关联模式 夫妻的社会特征。我们还描述了它 同性婚姻或异性恋的“竞争风险”风险模型，使用 链接的NSLY/PUMS-D数据库。

The Demography of Local Marriage Markets" is a completely revised version of a proposal first submitted to the study section in January 1989. The main objective is to examine the effects of spatially-based marriage-market conditions on male and female patterns of first marriage transitions and assortative mating in the United States. A guiding hypothesis is that local marriage-market opportunities and constraints affect (1) the extent and timing of marriage; and (2) the choice of marital partners. The choice of a geographic scale most appropriate to the analysis of local marriage markets is empirical. Consequently, the first objective is to evaluate several alternative definitions of marriage-market areas. We define these areas using labor markets identified in the 1980 PUMS-D file, and counties and multicounty units available in the 1988 Area Resource File. Indicators of marriage-market conditions such as local economic opportunities and spouse availability are then included in ecological models of local-area proportions ever-married. This analysis addresses a basic limitation of previous research, which is the implicit assumption that marriage markets are national rather than local in scope. The second objective is to fit semi-parametric hazards models of male and female transitions to first marriage. Specifically, local marriage-market indicators are merged for the first time with individual marital history data from the 1979-1988 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). These newly merged data provide a unique opportunity to build true "contextual" models of marital status transitions. To our knowledge, no other study has included local marriage-market indicators in behavioral models of the transition to first marriage. Finally, a third objective is to examine the effects of local marriage-market conditions on patterns of assortative mating. Marriage-market indicators are linked to married-couple records from the PUMS-D in order to evaluate their effects on patterns of in- and out-group marriage. We discuss various log-linear models that are especially appropriate to identifying patterns of association in cross-classifications of husbands' and wives' social characteristics. We also describe it "competing-risk" hazards models of marital homogamy or heterogamy, using the linked NSLY/PUMS-D database.