Resilient Electricity Networks for Great Britain (RESNET)

英国电力能源网络的弹性正面临三个方面的挑战：(i)旨在通过脱碳能源供应减少温室气体排放的政策将大大改变现有的供应结构；（ii）“能源”系统的脱碳很可能涉及将以前的非电力能源需求大量转移到电力网络，并随之改变需要多少电力和何时需要电力；（iii）预期的平均气候变化将改变电力需求和电力基础设施的性能，极端天气事件的严重性和频率增加将影响电网和配电系统。为了应对这些多重挑战，RESNET项目（大不列颠弹性电力网络）将开发并演示一种综合的系统级方法，以分析现有和拟议中的电力网络的弹性。它将开发、测试和改进评估适应措施的工具，这些措施旨在增强网络的弹性，包括社会和技术适应。这项工作将包括5个工作包（wp）。WP1将生成三个关键天气变量的未来气候情景，其中平均特征的变化会影响网络的运行弹性，极端天气的变化会影响网络的基础设施弹性：温度（和太阳辐射）、降雨（与相关的洪水）和风。WP2将制定电力需求和供应情景，与WP1的气候变化影响情景和实现政策目标所需的脱碳水平保持一致。WP3将把来自WP1的危险模型与来自WP2的需求和供应情景结合起来，建立一个动态的、空间明确的电力系统仿真模型。WP4将使用该模型量化未来气候对整个英国电力传输系统（即国家电网）的日常（运行）复原力和对极端事件的复原力（基础设施网络复原力）的潜在影响，并对配电网进行案例研究。针对这些基础设施、需求和气候未来，我们将测试各种适应方案的有效性，以提高能源系统的整体弹性。适应在这里不被视为纯粹的技术活动，而应考虑到社会适应，即消费者改变他们的做法以应对不断变化的网络可靠性水平。WP5将评估未来网络脆弱性对组织和家庭的影响，同时考虑气候变化的影响，并考虑如何适应这些影响。当代英国社会已经习惯了可靠的电力供应，任何供应中断通常被认为是社会、政治和经济上不受欢迎的，几乎不考虑保持如此高水平的完整性所带来的技术和经济影响。这种预期的服务水平进一步限制了已经面临多重挑战的电力网络。最终，如果英国的能源系统要实现政府2摄氏度承诺所隐含的紧急和快速的缓解，电力系统将不得不在短期、中期和长期内经历深刻的变革。一个成功且快速脱碳的电力系统的关键是一个能够适应气候变化影响的输配电网络，能够在不断变化的需求背景下平衡不同类型的低碳供应。对这些系统性挑战进行早期和综合分析，将为开发可负担、稳健和低碳的电力系统带来重大好处，该系统能够抵御不断变化的环境和社会经济驱动因素的直接和间接影响。

The resilience of GB's electricity energy network is being challenged on three fronts: (i) policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions through decarbonising energy supply will alter substantially the existing supply mix; (ii) decarbonising of the 'energy' system will likely involve considerable shift of previously non-electric energy demand onto the electricity network with accompanying changes in how much electricity is needed and when it is needed; and (iii) the expected mean changes in climate will alter the electricity demand and performance of electricity infrastructure, and increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events will impact on the electrical network and distribution systems.To address these multiple challenges, the RESNET project (Resilient Electricity Networks for Great Britain) will develop and demonstrate a comprehensive systems-level approach to analysing the resilience of the existing and proposed electricity networks. It will develop, test and refine tools for evaluating adaptation measures designed to enhance the resilience of the network including societal and technical adaptation. The work will consist of 5 work packages (WPs).WP1 will produce future climate scenarios for three key weather variables where changes in average characteristics can impact on the operational resilience of the network and changes in extremes can impact the infrastructural resilience of the network: temperature (and solar radiation), rainfall (with associated flooding) and wind. WP2 will develop electricity demand and supply scenarios, consistent both with the climate change impacts scenarios from WP1, and levels of decarbonisation required to meet policy targets. WP3 will couple the hazard model from WP1 with demand and supply scenarios from WP2 with a dynamic, spatially explicit, power systems simulation model. WP4 will use the model to quantify the potential impacts of future climate upon the day to day (operational) resilience and resilience to extreme events (infrastructure network resilience) of the overall GB electricity transmission system (i.e. the National Grid), and case study distribution networks. Against these infrastructure, demand and climate futures we will test the effectiveness of a wide range of adaptation options for improving the overall resilience of the energy system. Adaptation is not seen here as a purely technical activity but should consider societal adaptation where by consumers change their practices to cope with changing levels of network reliability. WP5 will assess the impact of the future vulnerability of the network upon organisations and households, taking into account climate change impacts, and consider how these may adapt.Contemporary UK society has grown accustomed to a reliable supply of electricity with any interruption to supply typically considered, socially, politically and economically undesirable, almost regardless of the technical and economic implications of maintaining such high levels of integrity. This expected level of service places further constraints on an electricity network already facing multiple challenges. Ultimately, if the UK's energy system is to achieve the urgent and rapid mitigation implied by the Government's 2 deg C commitment, the electricity system will have to undergo profound changes over the short, medium and long term. Pivotal to a successful and rapidly decarbonising electricity system is a transmission and distribution network that is resilient to climate change impacts, capable of balancing different types of low carbon supply in the context of a changing demand profile. Early and integrated analysis of these systemic challenges will pay significant dividends in developing an affordable, robust and low carbon electricity system resilient to the direct and indirect impacts of changing environmental and socio-economic drivers.